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Risk Factors - AMBC

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Item 1A. Risk Factors, Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, and Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.

AVAILABLE INFORMATION

Our Internet address is www.ambac.com. We make available through the investor relations section of our web site, annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K, and any amendments to those reports, filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13(a) or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, as well as proxy statements, as soon as reasonably practicable after we electronically file such material with, or furnish it to, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Our Investor Relations Department can be contacted at Ambac Financial Group, Inc.com. The reference to our website address does not constitute inclusion or incorporation by reference of the information contained on our website in this Annual Report on Form 10-K or other filings with the SEC and the information contained on our website is not part of this document.

INSURANCE REGULATORY MATTERS AND OTHER RESTRICTIONS

Regulatory Matters

Everspan Indemnity and its wholly owned subsidiary, Everspan Insurance Company ("Everspan Insurance") are domiciled in the state of Arizona and are therefore subject to the insurance laws and regulations of the State of Arizona and regulated by the Arizona Department of Insurance and Financial Institutions as domestic insurers. The subsidiaries of Everspan Insurance are domiciled in various States and are therefore subject to the insurance laws and regulations of their respective domiciliary States and regulated by the insurance departments of those States as domestic insurers. See Note 9. Insurance Regulatory Restrictions to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further information on regulatory restrictions.

The Insurance Distribution businesses, like other MGA/Us, program administrators and brokers, may be subject to licensing requirements and regulation by insurance regulators in various states and other applicable regulatory jurisdictions in which they conduct business.

Beat and its UK domiciled entities are subject to the UK Companies Act 2006 as well as to insurance laws and regulations of the UK and other jurisdictions in which they operate. Additionally, some of the Beat subsidiaries, while not regulated entities, must act in line with the regulations of the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority as appointed representatives of regulated entities.


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			8			2024 Form 10-K

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Beat's subsidiary, Alcor Underwriting Bermuda, is domiciled in Bermuda and is subject to the insurance laws and regulations of Bermuda and regulated by the Bermuda Monetary Authority (the "BMA").

Regulation of Change in Control

Under applicable insurance law, any acquisition of control of AFG, or any other direct or indirect acquisition of control of its insurance carrier subsidiaries, requires the prior approval (or non-disapproval) of the domiciliary regulator of the acquired company (or, in the case of AFG, the domiciliary regulators of its insurance carrier subsidiaries). “Control” is generally defined as the direct or indirect power to direct or cause the direction of the management and policies of a person. Any purchaser of 10% or more of the outstanding voting stock of a corporation is presumed to have acquired control of that corporation and its subsidiaries unless the applicable insurance regulator, upon application, determines otherwise.

With respect to the AAC Sale, the Buyer submitted an application for the proposed acquisition of control of AAC to the Wisconsin Office of the Commissioner of Insurance ("OCI") and is awaiting approval of the acquisition by the OCI. The Buyer received approval for the change in control of Ambac UK from the U.K. Prudential Regulation Authority, which expires on April 30, 2025.

Under the UK Companies Act, people with significant control (PSCs), defined as a person or entity holding more than 25% of the shares in the relevant company, must be reported to Companies House.

Additionally, any change in control of Beat would need to be approved by Lloyds of London, the BMA and any applicable U.S. regulators.

Dividend Restrictions, Including Contractual Restrictions

Everspan Companies:

Everspan Indemnity, Everspan Insurance and its subsidiaries are subject to regulatory restrictions on their ability to pay dividends, and do not have sufficient earned surplus at this time to pay ordinary dividends under the insurance laws and regulations of their respective States of domicile. Ambac does not have any plans to seek dividends from Everspan so that surplus may accumulate to support Everspan's growth.

Cirrata Companies:

Ambac's MGA/U subsidiaries are not restricted from paying dividends or partner distributions (collectively "Distributions") to their owners or partners, including Cirrata, which is 100% owned by AFG. Ambac's established MGA/Us historically have paid Distributions equating to the majority of their individual EBITDA, subject to working capital, taxes and other capital needs, on a quarterly basis. Newly formed de-novo MGA/Us are not expected to make regular distributions to their partners until they become profitable and generate free cash flow on a steady and/or predictable basis.

INVESTMENTS AND INVESTMENT POLICY

As of December 31, 2024, the consolidated investments of Ambac's continuing operations had an aggregate fair value of approximately $312,915 thousand. Investments are primarily managed by third party investment management firms overseen internally. All investments are made in accordance with the general objectives, policies, and guidelines for investments approved by the Board of Directors of the applicable subsidiary. These policies and guidelines include liquidity, credit quality, diversification and duration objectives and are periodically reviewed and revised as appropriate.

As of December 31, 2024, the Everspan group investment portfolio had an aggregate fair value of approximately $192,747 thousand. The investment objective is to achieve the highest risk-adjusted after-tax return on a diversified investment portfolio consistent with the respective company's risk tolerance while employing active asset/liability management practices to satisfy all operating and strategic liquidity needs. In addition to internal investment policies and guidelines, the investment portfolio of each company is subject to limits on the types and quality of investments imposed by applicable insurance laws and regulations of the jurisdictions in which it is licensed. The Board of Directors of each respective subsidiary approves any changes to the respective investment policies.

As of December 31, 2024, AFG (parent company only, excluding investments in subsidiaries) investment portfolio had an aggregate carrying value of approximately $92,556 thousand, including $64,439 thousand of short-term investments carried at fair value. The primary investment objective is to preserve capital for strategic uses while maximizing income. The investment portfolio is subject to internal investment guidelines. Such guidelines set forth minimum credit rating requirements and credit risk concentration limits.

As of December 31, 2024, the Insurance Distribution investment portfolio had an aggregate fair value of approximately $27,611 thousand, primarily consisting of money market funds.


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			9			2024 Form 10-K

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The following table provide certain information concerning the consolidated investments of Ambac:

(1) Yields are stated on a pre-tax basis, based on average amortized cost for both long and short term fixed-maturity investments.

(2) Other investments consist of equity interests in development stage insurance MGA's and pooled investment funds.

EMPLOYEES

As of December 31, 2024, Ambac had 195 employees in the United States and 185 employees within the United Kingdom and Bermuda. Our 2024 voluntary turnover rate was approximately 6.5%. Ambac considers its employee relations to be satisfactory.

Ambac’s focus has been on identifying and retaining key talent through individual development programs following skills assessments. Ambac’s succession planning has identified internal candidates that could fill executive management and senior management positions as the need arises. The Company incorporates performance metrics as part of the annual short-term incentive bonus offering with increased bonus potential for exceptional results. We utilize third-party benchmark data to establish market-based compensation levels. We believe that our current compensation and incentive levels reflect high performance expectations as part of our merit pay philosophy. The targeted use of long-term equity incentive plan awards for key talent is an important element of Ambac’s long-term retention strategy.

Item 1A. Risk Factors ($ in thousands)

Capitalized terms used but not defined in this section shall have the meanings ascribed thereto in Part I, Item 1 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K or in Note 1. Background and Business Description to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K unless otherwise indicated.

Our risk factors are organized in the following sections

Risks Related to AFG Common Shares

The price per share of AFG's common stock may be subject to a high degree of volatility, including significant price declines.

The price of the shares may decline substantially in response to a number of events or circumstances, including but not limited to:

•adverse developments in our financial condition or results of operations;

•changes in the actual or perceived risk within our insured portfolio;

•changes to regulatory status;

•changes in investors’ or analysts’ valuation measures for our stock;

•adverse changes in analysts’ recommendations regarding our stock;

•market perceptions of our success, or lack thereof, in pursuing and implementing our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses and our new business strategy more generally;

•the impact or perceived impact of any acquisition, dispositions or other strategic transactions, including entry into a new line of business, on the value or long-term prospects of the Company;

•failure to receive regulatory approval for the sale of our Legacy Financial Guarantee ("LFG") business, or failure to complete the sale of our LFG business for any other reason;

•adverse developments in the industries and markets in which we operate, including the property and casualty insurance, underwriting and brokerage industries, or the fixed income and equity capital markets;

•adverse market and/or economic conditions, such as those caused by a recession or inflation, which increase our risk of loss on insurance policies and depress the value and/or liquidity of our investments and other assets;

•adverse developments in current or future litigations; and

•results and actions of other participants in our industries.

Investments in AFG's common stock may be subject to a high degree of volatility.

Ambac is planning to further develop and expand its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			10			2024 Form 10-K

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businesses. Such plans may involve additional acquisitions of assets or existing businesses and the development of businesses through new or existing subsidiaries. Currently, it is not possible to fully predict the future prospects or other characteristics of such businesses. We may not be able to successfully identify opportunities, attract specialized underwriting and other talent, and operationalize new Insurance Distribution businesses in a timely or cost-efficient manner. While we expect to conduct business, financial and legal due diligence in connection with the evaluation of any future business or acquisition opportunities, there can be no assurance our due diligence will identify every matter that could have a material adverse effect on us. To implement our growth strategy, we must be able to meet our capital needs, expand our systems and our internal controls effectively, allocate our human resources optimally, identify and hire qualified employees and effectively integrate any acquisitions we make in our effort to achieve growth. No assurance can be given that Ambac will successfully execute its plans for new business, generate any earnings or value from new businesses or be able to successfully integrate any such business into our current operating structure. The failure to manage our growth effectively could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Should changes in Ambac’s circumstances or financial condition or in the political, economic and/or legal environment occur, there can be no assurance that all or any part of our strategy and/or initiatives will not be abandoned or amended to take account of such changes. Any such adjustment or abandonment may have a material adverse effect on our securities.

Risks Related to the Sale of AAC

The sale of the common stock of Ambac Assurance Corporation may not be completed as anticipated, or at all.

The closing of the AAC Sale is conditioned on, among other things, the receipt of specified regulatory approvals.

In addition, the purchase agreement relating to the AAC Sale (the "Purchase Agreement") provides for certain termination rights. Buyer and AFG may terminate the Purchase Agreement by mutual written agreement at any time prior to the closing date. In addition, either Buyer or AFG may terminate the Purchase Agreement at any time prior to the closing by giving written notice to the other party if

•the closing has not been consummated on or before April 4, 2025 (the "End Date"); provided, however, that if the closing has not occurred solely due to the failure to obtain applicable governmental and regulatory approvals from the authorities including, but not limited to, the OCI, the End Date will be automatically extended for an additional

ninety (90) days and the parties agree to continue to use their respective reasonable best efforts to satisfy such conditions to closing; provided, further, that the right to terminate the Purchase Agreement for the foregoing is not available to any party whose breach of any provision of the Purchase Agreement results in the failure of the closing to be consummated; or

•(i) applicable law makes the consummation of the closing illegal or otherwise prohibited or (ii) any judgment, injunction, order or decree of any governmental authority enjoins Buyer and AFG from consummating the closing.

The Purchase Agreement may be terminated by Buyer by written notice to AFG if a breach of any representation or warranty or failure to perform any covenant or agreement shall have occurred that would cause certain conditions not to be satisfied, and such breach is not cured within sixty (60) days of written notice to AFG or is incapable of being cured by the End Date. Additionally, the Purchase Agreement may be terminated by Buyer if at any time the AFG Board of Directors effects an Ambac Board Recommendation Change (as defined in the Purchase Agreement).

The Purchase Agreement may be terminated by AFG by written notice if a breach of any representation or warranty or failure to perform any covenant or agreement shall have occurred that would cause certain conditions not to be satisfied, and such breach is not cured within sixty (60) days of written notice to Buyer or is incapable of being cured by the End Date.

The total proceeds realized from the AAC Sale are contingent upon satisfaction of various closing conditions. Any delay in satisfying the closing conditions may increase the risk that the AAC Sale will be terminated, or reduce the benefits we expect to achieve.

The AAC Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement, whether or not completed, may adversely affect the retained business.

Transactions such as the AAC Sale are often subject to lawsuits by stockholders. It is possible that certain common stockholders or other stakeholders will commence or seek to commence litigation against Ambac or the Ambac Board. Such litigation could result in substantial costs and divert management’s attention from other business concerns, which could adversely affect Ambac's specialty property and casualty insurance and its insurance distribution businesses that Ambac will continue to operate following the completion of the AAC Sale (the "Retained Business").

As a result of the AAC Sale, we may experience higher employee turnover and finding qualified replacements may be more difficult. The loss of the services of members of our executive and/or senior management teams or our inability to hire and retain other talented personnel could delay or prevent us from succeeding in executing our strategies, which could negatively impact the Retained Business. Further, while the completion of the AAC Sale is pending, we may be unable to attract and retain key personnel and our management’s focus and attention and employee resources may be diverted from operational matters.


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			11			2024 Form 10-K

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If we fail to complete the AAC Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement, our business and financial performance may be adversely affected, including in the event Ambac is required to pay the Termination Fee.

The completion of the AAC Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of various conditions, which may not be satisfied in a timely manner or at all.

If the AAC Sale is not completed, we will not recoup the costs incurred in connection with negotiating the AAC Sale and the other transactions. Our directors, executive officers and other employees will have expended extensive time and effort and will have experienced significant distractions from their work during the pendency of the AAC Sale, and we will have incurred significant third-party transaction costs, in each case, without any commensurate benefit, which may have a material and adverse effect on our stock price and results of operations.

Furthermore, if the AAC Sale and the other transactions contemplated by the Purchase Agreement are not completed, the announcement of the termination of the Purchase Agreement may adversely affect our relationships with our customers, business partners and employees, which could have a material adverse impact on our ability to effectively operate our business, and we may be required to pay the Termination Fee of $22,000 under certain circumstances, each of which could have further adverse effects on our business, results of operations and the trading price of AFG's common stock.

Additionally, we intend to use the proceeds of the AAC Sale to repay all or a portion of the debt used to fund the acquisition of 60% of the share capital of Beat Capital Partners Limited. If we do not consummate the AAC Sale then we will need to repay or refinance such debt with other sources of funds, which may not be available on favorable terms or at all. An inability to repay the debt used to fund the acquisition of Beat from proceeds of the AAC Sale or other sources, or an inability to refinance such debt on favorable terms or at all, may materially negatively affect our business and results of operations.

If the AAC Sale is not approved by AAC’s and Ambac UK’s regulators or if we fail to complete the AAC Sale for any other reason, there may not be any other offer from a potential acquiror that the AFG Board determines to be attractive.

If we fail to complete the AAC Sale, the Board of Directors of AFG, in discharging its fiduciary obligations to our stockholders, may evaluate other strategic alternatives including, but not limited to, continuing to operate AAC and the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business for the foreseeable future or an alternative transaction relating to AAC or Ambac. An alternative transaction, if available, may yield lower consideration or value than the proposed AAC Sale, be on less favorable terms and conditions than those contained in the Purchase Agreement and involve significant delay. Any future sale of substantially all of Ambac’s property and assets within the meaning of Section 271 of the Delaware General Corporation Law and related case law or other similar transaction may be subject to stockholder approval, and there is

no guarantee that Ambac would be able to obtain such stockholder approval in favor of any such sale or other transaction. If the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business is not sold, there can be no assurance that we will realize value at least equivalent to the proceeds of the AAC Sale from the operation of the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business over time, or any value; nor can we predict the timeline for realizing value, if any, from the Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance business in the absence of the AAC Sale.

Risks Related to the Company's Business

We are subject to reputational harm if companies with which we do business engage in negligent or fraudulent behaviors and damage to our reputation could materially adversely impact our business.

Our business depends on contractual and working relationships with insurance distribution partners, insurance carriers, reinsurers, policy holders and beneficiaries, third party administrators, and other agents and counterparties.

Ambac may be adversely impacted by P&C industry market cycles.

Ambac’s P&C businesses are subject to market cycles. Premium pricing in the commercial property and casualty insurance markets has been historically based on underwriting capacity of insurance carriers, general economic conditions, inflation, and other factors. In recent years, we have been in a “hard” market whereby carriers have been raising rates. However, we have observed that in certain lines of business the rate of pricing increase has slowed or begun to decrease. If carriers lower premium rates more broadly this would be referred to as a “softening” or “soft” market. Given that Ambac generates revenue from both insurance premiums and commissions that are based on insurance premiums, our revenues are affected by the cyclicality of the markets in which we operate. If we enter a soft market, absent mitigating factors, we may experience a reduction in revenues and profits.


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			12			2024 Form 10-K

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Public health crises and/or natural disasters can cause economic and financial disruptions that may adversely affect, our business and results of operations.

Everspan may be exposed to losses arising out of unpredictable catastrophic events. These include natural catastrophes and other disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, windstorms, floods, wildfires, and severe winter weather. Catastrophes can also include man-made disasters, such as terrorist attacks and other destructive acts, war, political unrest, explosions, cyber-attacks, nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events and infrastructure failures. A severe catastrophe or a series of catastrophes could result in losses exceeding Everspan’s reinsurance protection and may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations or financial condition.

Catastrophic events may cause significant volatility in the markets in which we operate in addition to the global financial markets. Disruptions to these markets could result in a decline in business activity, increased claims, reduced underwriting capacity from insurance companies, reinsurers and other capital providers upon which our P&C businesses are reliant. Catastrophic events may also interrupt the operations of our agents and business partners that distribute our P&C insurance products. Profit commissions and contingent commissions related to certain of our P&C business lines may also be adversely impacted my catastrophic losses. Individually and/or collectively, these results may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.

The models may not accurately predict future losses or loss development. Limitations in these tools and models may adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.

We could realize losses from our cash and investment accounts if one of the financial institutions we use fail or is taken over by regulators

We maintain cash and investment accounts, including premium trust accounts, at depository institutions in amounts in excess of the limits insured by the FDIC and in countries other than the U.S. If one or more of these institutions were to fail or be taken over by their respective regulators, our access to these funds could be limited and we could experience liquidity problems and potential financial losses. Ambac's cash balances held at banks was $36,190 thousand as of December 31, 2024, including cash of Ambac's insurance distribution subsidiaries held in regional banks of $35,552 thousand as of December 31, 2024.

Our risk management policies and practices may not adequately identify significant risks.

We have established risk management policies and practices which seek to mitigate losses within our insurance programs. If we are not able to identify significant risks, we may not be able to timely mitigate such risks, thereby increasing the amount of losses to which we are exposed.

We operate within an enterprise risk management (“ERM”) framework designed to assess and monitor risks. However, no assurance can be given that we will effectively identify, review, monitor or manage all relevant risks. Nor can we provide assurance that our ERM framework will result in us accurately identifying all risks and adequately limiting our exposures based on our assessments. Any ineffectiveness in our controls or procedures or failure to manage these risks may have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

We are subject to the risk of litigation and the outcome of proceedings we are or may become involved in could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows.

It is not possible to predict the extent to which suits involving AFG or one or more other subsidiaries will be filed, and it is also not possible to predict the outcome of litigation. It is possible that there could be unfavorable outcomes in existing or future proceedings. Management may be unable to make meaningful or reasonable estimates of the amount or range of losses that could result from unfavorable outcomes or of the expenses that will be incurred in connection with such lawsuits. Under some circumstances, adverse results in any such proceedings and/or the incurring of significant litigation or other expenses could be material to our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows.

Our insurance businesses and our results of operations can be materially affected by political developments at the federal, state, local or foreign government levels. Government shutdowns, trade disputes, political turnover, judicial decisions, adverse changes in governmental funding, or poor public policy decision making could disrupt the national, international and local economies where we operate and/or have insured exposures. Risks include adverse changes in rules, regulations, compliance requirements, employment practices, taxes, business services and currencies.

We operate in in a highly regulated industry and our business will be negatively affected if we are not able to anticipate and keep pace with rapid changes in government laws and regulations or if government laws and regulations impair our business or increase our costs.

Our U.S. Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance subsidiaries are highly regulated as insurance carriers in the States of their domicile and the jurisdictions in which they are licensed. Our


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			13			2024 Form 10-K

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owned MGA/Us and insurance brokerage subsidiaries are also required to maintain certain entity-level licenses in those jurisdictions and/or the international countries in which they operate, as well as licenses of individual officers or representatives that are essential to their ability to conduct business. Each of the foregoing must also comply with laws generally applicable to insurance entities, including those relating to governance, capital, and operational requirements.

Government laws and regulations applicable to our businesses develop and change rapidly in response to consumer demands and public policies. State legislatures and insurance departments place increasing burdens on insurance carriers and producers with respect to matters such as cybersecurity, data privacy, management of technology, corporate governance, environmental and social issues, and enterprise risk management. Such laws and regulations require substantial resources to ensure that the Company has appropriate and effective compliance programs in place. If we are unable to keep pace with changes in applicable law and regulations, or if we otherwise fail in our compliance efforts, the Company may be subject to fines, sanctions, governmental orders or modifications to business practices that individually or collectively impair our business or increase our costs, possibly materially.

Such events could have a material adverse impact on the value of AFG's shares.

Everspan is in the early stage of developing a portfolio of specialty insurance program business. Its business plan entails establishing programs with program administrators, managing general agents and managing general underwriters ("MGA/Us"), with claims handled by TPAs. Should Everspan fail in executing its business plans or experience greater than expected losses due to operational issues, poor risk selection, default or failure to perform by reinsurers, failure to timely realize ultimate loss exposure, a departure of qualified MGA/Us from the industry, enhanced scrutiny from regulators or ratings agencies specific to the program business model, failure to collect amounts due to it or other factors, Everspan may suffer losses that are material to its capital position, a downgrade in its AM Best rating and/or a loss of its franchise value. Any such outcomes could have a material adverse impact on the value of AFG's shares.

A downgrade in the AM Best financial strength rating of Everspan may negatively affect our business.

The financial strength of Everspan is evaluated by AM Best, which issues a "FSR", an important factor in establishing the competitive position of Everspan. The FSR reflects AM Best’s opinion of Everspan's financial strength, operating performance, strategic position and ability to meet obligations to policyholders, and are not evaluations directed to investors. Everspan's FSR is subject to periodic review, and the criteria used in the rating methodologies are subject to change. All of the insurance companies that comprise Everspan are rated "A-" (Excellent). A downgrade in Everspan's FSR could make it more difficult to sell insurance policies and Everspan's distribution channels may cease to transact with them, which would adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Failure of Everspan's Program Partners to properly market, underwrite or administer policies could adversely affect us.

The marketing, underwriting, administration and servicing of policies in our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business have been contracted to the MGA/Us with which Everspan transacts. Any failure by the MGA/Us or TPAs to properly handle these functions could result in liability to us. Even though the MGA/Us and TPAs with which Everspan transacts may be required to indemnify Everspan for any such liability or monetary losses, there are risks for which indemnity may be insufficient or entirely unavailable if, for example, the relevant program partner becomes insolvent or is otherwise unable to pay us. Furthermore, any failure to properly handle the marketing, underwriting, administration and servicing of policies in our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business could also create regulatory issues or harm our reputation, which could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

If in our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business we are unable to accurately underwrite risks and charge competitive yet profitable rates to our clients and policyholders, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected.

In general, the premiums for our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance policies are established at the time a policy is issued and, therefore, before all of our underlying costs are known. Like other property and casualty insurance companies, Everspan relies on estimates and assumptions in setting its premium rates. Establishing adequate premium rates is necessary, together with investment income, to generate sufficient revenue to offset losses, loss adjustment expenses, acquisition costs and general and administrative expenses in order to earn a profit. The rate environment is also subject to market cycles, which can be difficult to predict and make it difficult to adequately price risk. Alternatively, Everspan could set its premiums too high, which could reduce its competitiveness and lead to lower policyholder retention, resulting in lower revenues. Pricing is a highly


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			14			2024 Form 10-K

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complex exercise involving the acquisition and analysis of historical loss data and the projection of future trends, loss costs, expenses, and inflation trends, among other factors, for each of Everspan's products in multiple risk tiers and many different markets. Everspan seeks to implement its pricing accurately in accordance with its assumptions. Everspan's ability to undertake these efforts successfully and, as a result, to accurately price its policies, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including insufficient or unreliable data; incorrect or incomplete analysis of available data; uncertainties generally inherent in estimates and assumptions; failure to implement appropriate actuarial projections and ratings formulas or other pricing methodologies; regulatory constraints on rate increases; failure to accurately estimate investment yields and the duration of liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses; disagreements with reinsurers or the MGA/Us with whom Everspan transacts as to the adequacy of pricing assumptions; and unanticipated court decisions, legislation or regulatory action.

If Everspan is unable to obtain reinsurance coverage at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect it, we may be required to bear increased risks or reduce the level of our underwriting commitments.

Everspan purchases reinsurance as part of its overall risk management strategy. While reinsurance does not discharge our insurance subsidiaries from their obligations to pay claims for losses insured under their insurance policies, it does make the reinsurer liable to them for the reinsured portion of the risk. At the inception of a new program, Everspan generally acts as an issuing carrier and reinsures a majority of such risk to third parties in contracts that are generally subject to term limitations or termination rights. Everspan may be unable to maintain its current reinsurance arrangements or to obtain other reinsurance in adequate amounts and at favorable rates, particularly if reinsurers become unwilling or unable to support our specialty property and casualty business in the future. Additionally, market conditions beyond our control may impact the availability and cost of reinsurance and could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. A decline in the availability of reinsurance may increase the cost of reinsurance and materially and adversely affect our business prospects. In the latter case, Everspan would have to accept an increase in exposure to risk, reduce the amount of business written by it or seek alternatives in line with Everspan's risk limits, all of which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We may be adversely affected by failures in services or products provided by third parties.

Outsourcing functions to third parties exposes us to increased risk related to service disruptions. If we do not effectively develop, implement and monitor our vendor, agency and contractual counterparty relationships and the financial

condition of such third parties, if third party providers do not perform as anticipated, if we experience technological or other problems, or if vendor, agency or other contractual relationships relevant to our business process functions are terminated, we may not realize expected productivity improvements or cost efficiencies and may experience operational difficulties, increased costs and a loss of business. The increased risks identified above could expose us to disruption of service, monetary and reputational damages, competitive disadvantage and significant increases in compliance costs.

Our outsourcing of certain technology and business process functions to third parties may expose us to increased risk related to data security, service disruptions or the effectiveness of our control system. These risks could increase as vendors increasingly offer cloud-based software services rather than software services which can be run within our data centers or as we choose to move additional functions to the cloud.

Our insurance carriers are subject to reinsurance counterparty credit risk. Their reinsurers may not pay on losses in a timely fashion, or at all.

Our insurance carrier subsidiaries purchase reinsurance to transfer part of the risk they have underwritten to reinsurance companies in exchange for part of the premium they receive in connection with the risk. Although reinsurance makes reinsurers liable to our carriers for the risk transferred or ceded to the reinsurers, it does not relieve our insurance carrier subsidiaries of their liabilities to policyholders. Accordingly, our insurance carrier subsidiaries are exposed to credit risk with respect to their reinsurers, especially to the extent reinsurance receivables are not sufficiently secured by collateral or do not benefit from other credit enhancements. Our insurance carrier subsidiaries also bear the risk that they are unable to receive, or there is a substantial delay in receiving, the reinsurance recoverable for any reason, including that the terms of the reinsurance contract do not reflect the intent of the parties to the contract; there is a disagreement between the parties as to their intent; the terms of the contract cannot be legally enforced; the terms of the contract are interpreted by a court or arbitration panel differently than intended by our insurance carrier subsidiaries; the reinsurance transaction performs differently than our insurance carrier subsidiaries anticipated due to a flawed design of the reinsurance structure, terms or conditions; or changes in law and regulation, or in the interpretation of laws and regulations, affects a reinsurance transaction.

The insolvency of one or more of our insurance carrier subsidiaries' reinsurers, or their inability or unwillingness to make timely payments if and when required under the terms of


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			15			2024 Form 10-K

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reinsurance contracts, could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Everspan’s insurance carriers may be subject to counterparty credit risk associated with its MGA/U distribution partners.

Everspan may be subject to the risk that its MGA/U program partners fail to meet their financial obligations to Everspan or policyholders as it relates to premiums payable, return premiums, sliding scale commissions and return commissions. This risk may be exacerbated to the extent that Everspan has financial obligations to its reinsurers under reinsurance agreements that do not absolve Everspan of for credit risk or non-payment by the MGA/U program partner.

If actual claims exceed loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for Everspan, or if changes in the estimated level of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are necessary, including as a result of, among other things, changes in the legal/tort, regulatory and economic environments in which Everspan operates, our financial results could be materially and adversely affected.

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves represent management estimates of what the ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost. These estimates are developed using common and industry accepted actuarial techniques. Nevertheless, the process of estimating loss and loss adjustment expense reserves involves a high degree of judgment and is subject to a number of variables, which can be affected by internal and external events, such as changes in claims handling, changes in loss cost trends, catastrophic events and social inflation.

Elevated social inflation trends are likely to continue. Social inflation, which includes increased litigation, partially supported by access to litigation financing; changes in social norms; an erosion of the public sentiment towards insurers’ interpretation of coverage levels and limits; and increased damage awards by juries, may make it difficult for Everspan to estimate loss reserves, establish adequate product pricing, and maintain a strong competitive position with consumers.

Moreover, the impact of catastrophic events may not be adequately reflected in claims reserves and, accordingly, could adversely impact results. Catastrophic losses are caused by wind and hail, wildfires, tornadoes, hurricanes, tropical storms, earthquakes, severe freeze events, volcanic eruptions, terrorism, cyber attacks, civil unrest, and industrial accidents and other such events.

We also face potential exposure to various types of new and emerging tort claims which were not known or anticipated when our insurance products were originally priced.

The impact of many of these items on ultimate costs for claims and claim adjustment expense reserves could be material and is difficult to estimate.

Our ability to grow Everspan will depend in part on the addition of new Program Partners, and our ability to effectively onboard such new Program Partners could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Our ability to grow Everspan will depend in part on the addition of new MGA/Us. If Everspan does not effectively and timely source, evaluate and onboard new MGA/Us, including assisting such MGA/Us to quickly resolve any post-onboarding matters and provide effective ongoing support, Everspan's ability to add new MGA/Us and its relationships with its existing Program Partners could be adversely affected. Additionally, Everspan's reputation with potential new MGA/Us could be damaged if it fails to effectively onboard MGA/Us with whom it has signed definitive legal agreements. Such reputational damage could make it more difficult for Everspan to attract new and retain existing program partners, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We compete with a large number of companies in the property and casualty insurance industry for underwriting premium.

We compete with a large number of companies in the property and casualty insurance industry for underwriting premium. During periods of intense competition for premium, in particular, our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses may be challenged to maintain competitiveness with other companies that may seek to write policies without the same regard for risk and profitability targeted by our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses.

Some of these competitors also have longer standing and better established market recognition than Ambac's group companies. The greater resources or market presence that these competitors possess may enable them to avoid or defray particular costs, employ greater pricing flexibility, have a higher tolerance for risk or loss, or exploit other advantages that may make it more difficult for us to compete. We may incur increased costs in competing for underwriting revenues in this environment. If we are unable to compete effectively in the markets in which our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses operate or expand into, our underwriting revenues may decline, as well as overall business results.

Other competitive concerns include the entrance of technology companies into the insurance distribution business and the


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direct-to-consumer insurance carriers that do not utilize third party agents and brokers as production sources. Additionally, the insurance industry may experience consolidation, and therefore we may experience increased competition from insurance companies and the financial services industry, as a growing number of larger financial institutions increasingly, and aggressively, offer a wider variety of financial services, including insurance distribution services. While we collaborate and compete in these segments on a fee-for-service basis, we cannot be certain that such alternative markets will provide the same level of insurance coverage or profitability as traditional insurance markets.

Technological changes to the way insurance is distributed, underwritten, and administered also present competitive risks. For example, our competitive position could be impacted if we are unable to cost-effectively deploy technology, such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, which collects and analyzes large sets of data to make underwriting or other decisions, or if our competitors collect and use data which we do not have the ability to access or use. In addition, usage-based methods of determining premiums (e.g., telematics) can impact product pricing and design and are becoming an increasingly important competitive factor. The landscape of law and regulation governing these areas presents additional risk to the extent we are unable to timely adapt to ensure compliance.

Impairment of intangible assets and goodwill, resulting from acquisitions, could adversely affect our results of operations.

In connection with Ambac’s acquisition of insurance distribution businesses, Ambac recorded the fair value of identifiable intangible assets (primarily related to distribution relationships) and goodwill. The intangible assets will be amortized over their remaining useful lives. The Company will test intangible assets for impairment if certain events occur or circumstances change indicating that the carrying amount of the intangible asset may not be recoverable. Goodwill will be tested for impairment annually or whenever events occur or circumstances change that may indicate impairment. Intangible asset and goodwill impairments are driven by a variety of factors, which could include, among other things, declining future cash flows of the acquired business as addressed in other risk factors related to the Insurance Distribution Business. Any intangible asset or goodwill impairment could adversely affect the Company's operating results and financial condition.

The commissions of our MGA/Us and insurance broker are derived from insurance policies underwritten on behalf of a limited number of capacity providers, including insurance and reinsurance companies, Lloyd’s syndicates and other capital providers. Should one or more of these capacity providers terminate its arrangements with our Insurance Distribution businesses or otherwise decrease the amount of capacity provided, we may lose significant commission revenues or lose

significant business production while seeking other sources of capacity.

A number of our MGA/Us have material relationships with Lloyd’s Syndicates 4242, and to a lesser extent Cadenza Re Limited, which are risk carriers that are serviced by Ambac group entities. A reduction in scale and/or appetite of these carriers whether in response to underwriting performance, regulatory considerations, availability of underwriting capital support, or otherwise may result in a loss of significant commission revenues. Furthermore, these carriers form the cornerstone capacity for some of our MGA/Us new launches and hence a deterioration in their activities will further inhibit new MGA/U launches.

Our owned MGA/Us and insurance brokerage operating subsidiaries are subject to various potential claims and other proceedings, including those relating to alleged errors and omissions in connection with the placement or servicing of insurance and/or the provision of services in the ordinary course of business, of which we cannot, and likely will not be able to, predict the outcome with certainty. Because our MGA/Us and insurance brokerage operating subsidiaries often assist customers with matters involving substantial amounts of money, including the placement of insurance and the handling of related claims that customers may assert, errors and omissions, claims against it may arise alleging potential liability for all or part of the amounts in question. Also, the failure of an insurer with whom our MGA/Us and insurance brokerage operating subsidiaries place business could result in errors and omissions claims against it by its customers, which could adversely affect Ambac’s results of operations and financial condition. Claimants may seek large damage awards, and these claims may involve potentially significant legal costs and damages. In addition, regardless of monetary costs, these matters could have a material adverse effect on our reputation and cause harm to carrier, customer or employee relationships, or divert personnel and management resources.

Acquiring new MGA/Us is core to our Insurance Distribution business strategy. Risks associated with such endeavors could adversely affect our growth and results of operations.

Failure to successfully identify and complete acquisitions likely would result in us achieving slower growth and less operating scale. Moreover, the failure of acquisition targets to achieve anticipated revenue and earnings levels could result in slower than anticipated growth and result in intangible asset or goodwill impairment charges.


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Ambac may not be able to realize expected synergies from acquisitions.

Ambac’s assessment of acquisitions often includes an estimate of the value of revenue, expense and operating synergies that may be created from the acquisition.

Changes in law or in the functioning of the healthcare market could significantly impair our Accident & Health insurance business and therefore negatively impact Ambac’s financial condition and results of operations.

Adoption of a single payer healthcare system or a public health insurance option would likely adversely impact the entire healthcare industry. While our Accident & Health insurance business has historically demonstrated an ability to adjust its products to major changes in the healthcare industry, such business would likely be adversely impacted by such a material change in the U.S. healthcare system particularly if private health insurance is eliminated, materially limited, or is rendered noncompetitive. Material adverse developments to our Accident & Health insurance business would have a negative impact on Ambac's financial condition and results of operations which could be material.

Our Insurance Distribution businesses and their results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected by conditions that result in reduced insurance capacity.

For example, capacity could be reduced by insurance companies failing or withdrawing from writing certain coverages that our Insurance Distribution businesses offer to their customers. To the extent that reinsurance becomes less widely available or significantly more expensive, we may not be able to procure the amount or types of coverage that our customers desire and the coverage we are able to procure for our customers may be more expensive or limited.

Variations in commission income that results from the timing of policy renewals and the net effect of new and lost business production may have unexpected effects on our results of operations.

Commission income can vary quarterly or annually due to the timing of policy renewals and the net effect of new and lost business production. Specifically, customers’ demand for insurance products can influence the timing of renewals, new business and lost business (which includes policies that are not renewed), and cancellations. Quarterly and annual fluctuations in revenues based upon increases and decreases associated with

the timing of new business, policy renewals and payments from insurance companies may adversely affect our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.

Variations in contingent commissions that results from the effects of insurance loss activity on portfolios may result in significant variations in revenues.

In the past these commissions have accounted for a significant amount of total commissions and fees. Due to, among other things, the inherent uncertainty of loss and changes in underwriting criteria by insurance companies, there will be a level of uncertainty related to the payment of profit-sharing contingent commissions.

System security risks, data protection breaches and cyber-attacks could adversely affect our business and results of operations.

We and our vendors and contractual counterparties rely on our information technology systems for many enterprise-critical functions and a prolonged failure or interruption of these systems for any reason could cause significant disruption to our operations and have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and operating results. Our information technology and application systems, as well as those of our vendors and contractual counterparties, may be vulnerable to threats from computer viruses, natural disasters, unauthorized access, cyber-attack and other similar disruptions. Computer hackers may be able to penetrate our network’s system security, or the network's security system of a vendor or contractual counterparty, and misappropriate or compromise confidential information, create system disruptions or cause shutdowns. In addition to our own confidential information, we and our vendors and contractual counterparties sometimes receive and are required to protect confidential information obtained from third parties (including us in the case of a vendor or contractual counterparty) and personally identifiable information of individuals. To the extent any disruption or security breach results in a loss or damage to our data (or the data of a vendor or contractual counterparty on which we rely), or inappropriate disclosure of our confidential information or that of others, or personally identifiable information of individuals, it could cause significant financial losses that are either not, or not fully, insured against, cause damage to our reputation, affect our relationships with third parties, lead to claims against us, result in regulatory action, or otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business or results of operations. In addition, we may be required to incur significant costs to mitigate the damage caused by any security breach, or to protect against future damage. Moreover, although we have incident response, disaster recovery and business continuity plans in place, we may not be able to adequately execute these plans in a timely fashion in the event of a disruption to our information technology and application systems. Additionally, we are an acquisitive organization and the process of integrating the information systems of the businesses we acquire is complex and exposes us


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to additional risk as we might not adequately identify weaknesses in the targets’ information systems, which could expose us to unexpected liabilities or make our own systems more vulnerable to attack.

The application of innovative and solution-based technology is required to facilitate effective operations and to realize internal efficiencies; however, the investment required in technology may not yield sufficient returns and the implementation of new or modified technology may be a material distraction to management.

Our business performance and growth plans could be negatively affected if we are not able to, among other things, gain internal efficiencies through the application of effective technology across our businesses, integrate operations, and/or innovate product and operational solutions. Conversely, investments in internal systems or innovative product offerings may fail to yield sufficient return to cover their investment.

Our ability to execute on our business strategies depends on the retention and recruitment of qualified executives and other professionals. We rely substantially upon the services of our current executive and senior management teams. In addition to these officers, we rely on key staff with insurance, underwriting, business development, credit, risk management, structured finance, investment, accounting, finance, legal, technology and other technical and specialized skills. The market for qualified executives, senior managers and other employees has become very competitive. As a result of competition for talent we may experience higher employee turnover and finding qualified replacements may be more difficult.

Our business could be negatively affected by actions of stakeholders whose interests may not be aligned with the broader interests of our stockholders.

Ambac could be negatively affected as a result of actions by stakeholders whose interests may not be aligned with the broader interests of our stockholders, and responding to any such actions could be costly and time-consuming, disrupt operations and divert the attention of management and employees. Such activities could interfere with our ability to execute on our strategic plans.

We are exposed to foreign exchange risk, which may adversely affect our financial condition and results of operation.

A significant portion of our Insurance Distribution business is operated out of the U.K where our functional currency is the British pound (“GBP”). However, the majority of our revenues are generated in U.S. dollars (“USD”). As a result, movements in the rate of exchange between GBP and USD may materially distort our financial results and cause losses that are not attributable to the underlying business. We frequently hedge this foreign exchange risk through forward contracts; however, these hedges may not completely negate the adverse impact of foreign exchange movements.

Risks Related to Capital, Liquidity and Credit Markets

AFG and Cirrata have substantial indebtedness, which could adversely affect our financial condition, operational flexibility and our ability to obtain financing in the future

Cirrata financed its acquisition of Beat in part through the issuance of $150,000 of new indebtedness, which is guaranteed by AFG (the “Credit Facility”). The debt incurred under the Credit Facility matures on July 31, 2025. The obligations of AFG and its subsidiaries under the Credit Facility are secured on a first-priority basis by (i) a pledge by AFG of all of the capital stock of Everspan Holdings, LLC and (ii) a pledge of all of the capital stock of Beat held by Cirrata and its subsidiaries.

The Company intends to pay off the Credit Facility with the proceeds of the AAC Sale. In the event that the AAC Sale did not occur, due to factors described elsewhere in these Risk Factors or for any other reason, the Company would need to seek to refinance the Credit Facility through the public or private credit markets. Alternatively the Company would seek to raise additional capital or restructure the debt. There is no guaranty that the Company could refinance or restructure the Credit Facility or raise additional capital at commercially reasonable terms or at all. In addition, if the Company were able to refinance or restructure the Credit Facility or raise additional capital it may incur a higher rate of interest or suffer more restrictive covenants, which could cause a material adverse impact on the Company’s results of operations and financial condition.

Furthermore, raising additional capital through the issuance of equity would depend on market and economic conditions, dilute the ownership of existing stockholders and potentially diminish the ability of the Company to access the capital markets in the future. Moreover, raising additional capital through the sale of assets would depend on market and economic conditions; the availability of buyers; the requirements and conditions of local law, including regulatory restrictions; and other factors that may result in the Company or a party enforcing rights against the Company to be unable to receive proceeds sufficient to discharge the Company’s obligations. Because of these and other factors beyond our control, the Company may be unable to pay or discharge the principal or interest on the indebtedness incurred under the Credit Facility on economic terms or at all, which would materially impair the value of the Company.


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The Credit Facility includes covenants that restrict our ability to manage capital resources by limiting, among other actions, the issuance of additional debt or capital stock; the creation of liens; the disposition of assets; engaging in transactions with affiliates; making restricted payments, including dividends and the purchase or redemption of capital stock; and making acquisitions and other investments. The Credit Facility also requires the prepayment of the borrowings thereunder with proceeds of certain debt or equity issuances and certain asset sales, including the AAC Sale. These requirements will impact our financial and operational flexibility while the Credit Facility remains in place.

The Company’s substantial indebtedness could have other significant consequences for our financial condition and operational flexibility. For example, it could:

•increase our vulnerability to general adverse economic, competitive and industry conditions;

•limit our ability to obtain additional financing in the future for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, general corporate purposes or other purposes on satisfactory terms or at all;

•require the Company to dedicate a substantial portion of its cash flow from operations to the payment of interest on its indebtedness, thereby reducing the funds available for operations and to fund the execution of key strategies;

•limit or restrict the Company from making strategic acquisitions or cause us to make non-strategic divestitures;

•limit the Company's ability, or increase the costs, to refinance its indebtedness or repay indebtedness due to ongoing interest payment obligations; and

•limit our ability to attract and retain key employees.

There can be no assurance that any such dividends or distributions would be made.

Our P&C businesses rely on a limited number of retail and wholesale brokers to generate revenue and the loss of one or more of these key partners could adversely impact our results of operations and growth objectives.

Our relationship with retail and wholesale brokers and other trading partners (collectively, “Brokers”) are nonexclusive and may be discontinued at any time by either party. In addition, any of these parties may change the terms of our relationship which would cause our commission expense to increase.

The loss of a Broker could reduce the number of submissions we receive which could result in reduced commission revenue. Our

business could also be harmed if we fail to develop relationships with new Brokers or other sources of business.

A reduction in the number of Brokers, whether as a result of the termination of relationships, consolidation or otherwise, may leave us more vulnerable to adverse changes in our relationships with other Brokers, particularly in geographies or lines of business where we offer insurance products through a relatively small number of Brokers.

We may have future capital needs and may not be able to obtain third-party financing or raise additional third-party capital on acceptable terms, or at all.

An inability to obtain third-party debt financing or raise additional third-party capital, when required by us or when business conditions warrant, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations, and could adversely impact our ability to achieve our strategic objectives. Our financial condition, the Risk Factors described elsewhere herein, as well as other factors, may constrain our financing abilities. Our ability to secure third-party financing will depend upon our future operating performance, regulatory conditions, the availability of credit generally, economic conditions and financial, business and other factors, many of which are beyond our control.

If third-party financing is not available when needed, or is available on unfavorable terms, we may be unable to take advantage of business opportunities, respond to competitive pressures or effectively and efficiently manage our balance sheet, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Changes in prevailing interest rate levels and market conditions could adversely impact our business results and prospects.

Increases in prevailing interest rate levels can adversely affect the value of our investment portfolio and, therefore, our financial strength.

Our investment portfolios may also be adversely affected by credit rating downgrades, spread volatility and credit losses.

Risks Related to the Discontinued Operations

AFG may not be able to realize value from AAC in the absence of a sale of AAC.

In the absence of a sale of AAC, the Company would continue to actively run-off the Discontinued Operations. In the absence of a sale, AFG's ability to realize


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residual value from AAC would depend upon, amongst other considerations, AAC's ability to satisfy all of its obligations that are senior to AFG's equity interests, including obligations to policyholders, surplus note holders and preferred stock holders. AAC's ability to satisfy all of its obligations that are senior to AFG's equity depends on a number of considerations, including its ability to recover losses previously paid; avoid material losses from litigation; mitigate losses from its insured portfolio, which is subject to significant risks and uncertainties, including as a result of varying potential perceptions of the value of AAC’s guarantees and securities; realize material value from its investment in Ambac UK; and repay and/or restructure its indebtedness in a timely manner such that accruing interest costs are manageable. The rehabilitator would act solely for the benefit of policyholders, which could result in material adverse consequences for our security holders and significantly reduce or eliminate any residual value of AAC for AFG. Due to the foregoing considerations, the risk factors described herein, and applicable legal and contractual restrictions described elsewhere herein and in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, substantial uncertainty remains as to AAC's ability to pay dividends to AFG and the timing of any such dividends.

Performance of our insured LFG transactions, including (but not limited to) those backed by municipal, utility, sovereign/sub-sovereign, military housing and consumer risk such as mortgages and student loans, can be adversely affected by general economic conditions, such as recession, federal budget cuts, decisions of governmental authorities about utilizing assets or facilities, inflation, unemployment levels, underemployment, home price depreciation, increasing foreclosure rates, unavailability of consumer credit, mortgage product attributes, borrower and/or originator fraud or misrepresentations, and asset servicer performance and financial health.

Issuers of public finance obligations insured by AAC have reported, or may report, budget shortfalls, significantly underfunded pensions or other fiscal stresses that imperil their ability to pay debt service or will require them to significantly raise taxes and/or cut spending in order to satisfy their

obligations. Furthermore, over time, the consequences of poor public policy decisions by state and local governments or increases in tax burdens can impact demographic trends, such as out-migration from one state or municipality to another, that may negatively impact the creditworthiness of related issuers. Some issuers of obligations insured by AAC have declared payment moratoriums, defaulted or filed for bankruptcy or similar debt adjustment proceedings, raising concerns about their ultimate ability or willingness to service the debt insured by AAC and AAC's ability to recover claims paid in the future. If the issuers of the obligations in the public finance portfolio are unable to raise taxes, cut spending, or receive federal or state assistance, or if such issuers default or file for bankruptcy under Chapter 9 or for similar relief under other laws that allow for the adjustment of debts, AAC may experience liquidity claims and/or ultimate losses on those obligations, which could adversely affect the Company's business, financial condition and results of operations. Issuers in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings may obtain judicial rulings and orders that impair creditors' rights or their ability to collect on amounts owed. In certain cases, judicial decisions may be contrary to AAC's expectations or understanding of the law or its rights thereunder, which may lead to worse outcomes in Chapter 9 or similar proceedings than anticipated at the outset.

As the runoff of the insured portfolio continues, the proportion of exposures we rate as below investment grade relative to the aggregate insured portfolio may increase, leaving the portfolio increasingly concentrated in higher risk exposures and heightening risks associated with large single risk exposures to particular issuers, losses caused by catastrophic events (including public health crises, terrorist acts and natural disasters), and losses in respect of different, but correlated, credit exposures.

LFG loss reserves are established when management has observed credit deterioration in its insured credits. Loss reserves established with respect to our LFG insurance policies issued to beneficiaries are based upon estimates and judgments by management, including estimates and judgments with respect to the probability of default; the severity of loss upon default; management’s ability to execute policy commutations, restructurings and other loss mitigation strategies; and estimated subrogation and other loss recoveries. The objective of establishing loss reserve estimates is not to, and our loss reserves do not, reflect the worst possible outcomes. While our reserving scenarios reflect a wide range of possible outcomes (on a probability weighted basis), reflecting the uncertainty regarding future developments and outcomes, our loss reserves may change materially based on future developments. As a result of inherent uncertainties in the estimates and judgments made to determine loss reserves, there can be no assurance that either the actual losses in our financial guarantee insurance portfolio will not exceed such reserves or that our reserves will


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not materially change over time as circumstances, our assumptions, or our models change.

Such stresses could result in liquidity strains or permanent losses.

Public health crises and/or natural disasters can cause economic and financial disruptions that may adversely affect, our business and results of operations.

AAC insures the obligations of a number of issuers, such as municipalities and securitization vehicles, including those backed by consumer loans such as mortgages and student loans, that may be substantially affected by the prolonged economic effects of pandemics, other public health crises, environmental events or natural disasters. Municipalities and their authorities, agencies and instrumentalities, especially those dependent on narrow revenue streams flowing from particular economic activities, such as sales taxes, may suffer disproportionately, from depressed revenues due to the lingering negative economic impact brought about by such events. In response to such events, the U.S. Federal government and State governments and their agencies may adopt policies or guidelines to provide emergency relief to consumers, such as limiting debt collection efforts, encouraging or requiring extensions, modifications or forbearance with respect to certain loans and fees, and establishing foreclosure and eviction moratoriums. These or similar types of emergency responses to future events may cause Ambac to experience higher losses in its insured portfolio.

Future environmental or other public health events and natural disasters can result in significant potential liabilities for issuers, that increase the potential for default on obligations insured by AAC and Ambac UK.

The models assume various conditions and probability scenarios and may not accurately predict future losses or measure losses currently incurred. Limitations in these tools and models may adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.

The ultimate impact of a catastrophic event on insurers and their obligations, and the economy in general, is by its very nature uncertain, and will be determined by a number of factors including, but not limited to, the depth and duration of a particular crisis; the extent to which affected consumers, businesses, municipal entities and other debtors or sources of revenues recover from depressed economic circumstances, and the timelines for such recoveries; the level and efficacy of government intervention or support for municipal entities, consumers, businesses and the financial markets via emergency relief measures; the availability of insurance; the availability of cost-effective financing; management of public health crisis remediation efforts; the effectiveness of other public or private crisis management efforts, mitigation measures or support; and certain socio-economic variables, such as unemployment levels.

Consequently, if following such catastrophic events we do not have sufficient resources or financial flexibility, receive adequate measures of support or realize the appropriate level of economic recovery, our ultimate ability to operate could be materially impaired and we could suffer material permanent losses and therefore may have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Counterparties that service aspects of our business may be similarly impacted and, if their operations are impaired due to a catastrophe, it may be difficult or costly to us to find alternatives to such servicing capabilities.

We may not be able to effectively reduce LFG insured exposures; measures taken to reduce risks may have an adverse effect on the Company's operating results or financial position.

In pursuing the objective of improving our financial position, we are seeking to terminate, commute, reinsure or otherwise reduce LFG insured exposures. De-risking transactions may not be feasible or economically viable. We cannot provide any assurance that any such transaction will be consummated in the future, or if it is, as to the timing, terms or conditions of any such transaction. Even if we consummate one or more of such transactions, doing so may ultimately prove to be unsuccessful in creating value for any or all of our stakeholders and may negatively impact our operating results or financial position.

Our risk management policies and practices may not adequately identify significant risks.

We have established risk management policies and practices which seek to mitigate our exposure to credit risk in our legacy financial guarantee insured portfolio. Ongoing surveillance of credit risks in our legacy financial guarantee insured portfolio is an important component of our risk management process. These policies and practices in the past have not insulated us from risks that were unforeseen and which had unanticipated loss severity, and such policies and practices may not do so in the future. There can be no assurance that these policies and practices will be adequate to avoid future losses. If we are not able to identify significant risks, we may not be able to timely mitigate such risks, thereby increasing the amount of losses to which we are exposed. An inability to identify significant risks could also result in the failure to timely establish loss reserves that are sufficient in relation to such risks.

AAC is defending or otherwise involved in various lawsuits relating to its LFG business. It is possible that there could be unfavorable outcomes in existing or future proceedings. Management may be unable to make meaningful or reasonable estimates of the amount or range of losses that could result from unfavorable outcomes or of the expenses that will be incurred in connection with such lawsuits. Under some circumstances, adverse results in any such proceedings and/or the incurring of


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significant litigation or other expenses could be material to AAC's operating results and financial position.

The Settlement Agreement, Stipulation and Order and OCI's Runoff Capital Framework may impair AAC's ability to pursue its business strategies.

Pursuant to the terms of the Settlement Agreement, dated as of June 7, 2010, as amended (the "Settlement Agreement"), by and among AAC, Ambac Credit Products LLC ("ACP"), AFG and certain counterparties to credit default swaps with ACP that were guaranteed by AAC, and the Stipulation and Order among the OCI, AFG and AAC that became effective on February 22, 2024 (the “Stipulation and Order”), AAC must seek prior approval by OCI of certain corporate actions. Certain of these restrictions may be waived with the approval of holders of surplus notes and/or OCI.

In addition, the capital framework developed and implemented by OCI to assist OCI with making decisions related to capital management at AAC ("OCI's Runoff Capital Framework") and decisions based thereon are expected to affect AAC's ability to reduce financial leverage, pay dividends to AFG, and/or make payments on surplus notes or Auction Market Preferred Shares ("AMPS").

OCI has certain enforcement rights with respect to the Settlement Agreement and Stipulation and Order, and retains full discretion over the design of, and assumptions utilized in, OCI's Runoff Capital Framework and the implications thereof. Disputes may arise over the interpretation of such agreements or instruments, the exercise or purported exercise of rights thereunder, the determinations made thereunder, or the performance of or failure or purported failure to adhere to the terms thereof. Any such dispute could have material adverse effects on AAC, and the Company more broadly, whether through litigation, administrative proceedings, supervisory orders, failure to execute transactions sought by management, interference with corporate strategies, objectives or prerogatives, inefficient decision-making or execution, forced realignment of resources, increased costs, distractions to management, strained working relationships or otherwise. Such effects would also increase the risk that OCI would seek to initiate rehabilitation proceedings or issue supervisory orders against AAC.

Government shutdowns, trade disputes, political turnover, judicial decisions, adverse changes in governmental funding, or poor public policy

decision making could disrupt the national, international and local economies where AAC and Ambac UK operate and/or have insured exposures. Risks include adverse changes in rules, regulations, compliance requirements, employment practices, taxes, business services and currencies.

The LFG's international business is operated by Ambac UK, which is regulated by the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”) for prudential purposes and the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) for conduct purposes. The terms of Ambac UK’s regulatory authority are now restricted and Ambac UK is in run-off. Among other things, Ambac UK may not write any new business, and, with respect to any entity within the Ambac group of affiliates, commute, vary or terminate any existing financial guaranty policy, transfer certain assets, or pay dividends, without the prior approval of the PRA. The PRA and FCA act generally in the interests of Ambac UK policyholders and will not take into account the interests of AAC or the securityholders of Ambac when considering whether to provide any such approval. Ambac UK exceeded its required capital thresholds as of December 31, 2024.

AAC has substantial indebtedness, which could adversely affect its financial condition, operational


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flexibility and our ability to obtain financing in the future.

AAC is highly leveraged. AAC’s ability to make payments on and/or refinance its surplus notes and to fund its operations will depend on its ability to generate substantial operating cash flow and on the performance of the LFG insured portfolio. There is substantial risk that AAC may not have the financial resources necessary to pay its surplus notes in full due to risks associated with its cash flow, insured portfolio, and other liabilities, as discussed elsewhere in these Risk Factors.

If AAC cannot pay its obligations from operating cash flow, it will have to take actions such as selling assets, restructuring or refinancing its surplus notes or seeking additional capital. The value of assets to be sold will depend on market and economic conditions; the availability of buyers; the requirements and conditions of local law, including regulatory restrictions; and other factors that may result in AAC or a party enforcing rights against AAC to be unable to receive proceeds sufficient to discharge AAC's obligations. Furthermore, the ability of creditors or claimants to realize upon any assets, may also be subject to bankruptcy and insolvency law limitations or similar limitations applicable in insurance company rehabilitation or liquidation proceedings. Because of these and other factors beyond our control, AAC may be unable to pay or discharge the principal or interest on its surplus notes, which would impair AAC's value and the value of AFG.

Surplus note principal and interest payments cannot be made without the approval of the OCI, which OCI will grant or withhold in its sole discretion. OCI's determinations about whether and when to authorize surplus note payments could materially impact the Company's financial position. Ambac can provide no assurance as to when surplus note principal and interest payments will be made. If OCI does not approve payments on or the acquisition of surplus notes over time, the ongoing accretion of interest on the notes may impair AAC's ability to extinguish the notes in full. Surplus notes are subordinated in right of payment to policyholder and other claims.

AAC's substantial indebtedness could have other significant consequences for our financial condition and operational flexibility. For example, it could:

•increase our vulnerability to general adverse economic, competitive and industry conditions;

•require AAC to dedicate a substantial portion of its cash flow from operations to the payment of surplus notes, thereby reducing the

funds available for operations and to fund the execution of key strategies, including the return of capital to AFG;

•limit AAC's ability, or increase the costs, to refinance surplus notes or repay surplus notes due to ongoing interest accretion; and

•limit our ability to attract and retain key employees.

While restrictive covenants in certain of our contracts may limit the amount of additional indebtedness AAC may incur, we may obtain waivers of those restrictions and incur additional indebtedness in the future. This could further exacerbate the risks associated with AAC's substantial leverage.

Revenues and cash flow will be adversely impacted by a decline in realization of installment premiums.

The amount of installment premiums collected is declining along with the insured portfolio. The reduction in installment premiums will result in lower LFG revenues and cash flow in the future.

Changes in prevailing interest rate levels and market conditions could adversely impact LFG's business results and prospects.

Increases in prevailing interest rate levels can adversely affect the value of our investment portfolio and, therefore, our financial strength. In the event that investments must be sold in order to pay claims, to pay debt obligations, to meet collateral posting requirements or to meet other liquidity needs, such investments would likely be sold at discounted prices. Additionally, increasing interest rates would have an adverse impact on the legacy financial guarantee insured portfolio. For example, increasing interest rates could result in higher claim payments in respect of defaulted obligations that bear floating rates of interest. Higher interest rates can also lead to increased credit stress on consumer asset-backed transactions (as the securitized assets supporting a portion of these exposures are floating rate consumer obligations), slower prepayment speeds and resulting “extension risk” relative to such consumer asset-backed transactions in the LFG insured and investment portfolios, and decreased refinancing activity.

Decreasing interest rates could result in early terminations of financial guarantee insurance policies in respect of which AAC and Ambac UK are paid on an installment basis and do not receive a termination premium, thus reducing premium earned for these transactions. Decreases in prevailing interest rates may also limit growth of, or reduce, investment income and may increase collateral requirements related to AAC's residual legacy customer interest rate swap portfolio.


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			24			2024 Form 10-K

Table of Contents,

Our inability to realize the expected recoveries included in our financial statements could adversely impact our liquidity, financial condition and results of operations and the value of our securities.

We expect to recover material amounts of claims payments through cash flows in the securitization structures of transactions that AAC insures. Realization of such expected recoveries is subject to various risks and uncertainties, including the rights and defenses of other parties with interests that conflict with AAC’s interests, the performance of the collateral and assets backing the obligations that AAC insures, the performance of servicers involved in securitizations in which AAC participates as insurer, as well as numerous regulatory, legal and compliance considerations and risks.

Adverse developments with respect to any of the factors described above may cause our recoveries to fall below expectations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, including our capital and liquidity, and may result in adverse consequences such as impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its surplus notes and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; eliminating or reducing the possibility of AAC delivering value to AFG, through dividends or otherwise; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AFG or AAC.

The composition of the securities in our investment portfolio may expose us to greater risk than before we invested in alternative assets.

AAC and Ambac UK allocate a portion of their investment portfolios in below investment grade securities; equities and alternative assets, such as hedge funds. Investments in below investment grade securities, equities and alternative assets could expose AAC and/or Ambac UK to greater earnings volatility, increased losses and decreased liquidity in the investment portfolio.

Unresolved Staff Comments — No matters require disclosure.

Item 1C. Cybersecurity.

The Company is exposed to diverse cybersecurity risks that have the potential to significantly impact our business operations, financial standing, and reputation. We seek to identify, assess, and manage these risks, with the aim of safeguarding our critical systems and information, and employ a documented process to respond in the event of a cybersecurity incident. This approach includes regular evaluations of our information systems and infrastructure to identify vulnerabilities and potential weaknesses through the use of system monitoring tools, as well as monitoring industry trends, threat intelligence, and emerging risks to anticipate and proactively assess potential threats.

Each review involves an initial risk assessment of the provider, and initial and periodic reviews of the provider's cybersecurity program to evaluate security standards, access controls and security measures. The Company generally requires vendors and third party service providers to report to the Company any cybersecurity incidents involving the providers’ systems that could affect the Company, or to have cybersecurity incident notice requirements in their cybersecurity programs.

Our approach to managing cybersecurity risks includes implementing cybersecurity measures such as selective use of encryption, firewalls, data loss prevention, security monitoring, endpoint detection and response, anti-spam and anti-phishing email security, and intrusion detection systems to fortify our defenses. We conduct mandatory annual employee cybersecurity training programs and frequent simulated phishing campaigns to enhance cybersecurity knowledge and practices across the organization. Ambac maintains an incident response plan that is updated regularly to respond to changes in the organization, risks and laws. Ambac also conducts an annual test to restore business critical systems and data from back-ups. We have established reporting processes and escalation pathways for our business units and functions to identify, assess and manage potential cybersecurity incidents in a timely manner. Once an incident is identified, the Chief Information Security Officer (“CISO”) (with the assistance of the IT team) will begin the investigation to determine the level of risk of the event and the appropriate response.

The Board of Directors of the Company oversees the management of risks from cybersecurity threats through its review of quarterly reports from the CISO on the status of the Company’s cybersecurity preparedness; updates on information systems; and any cybersecurity threats of which management has become aware. In addition the Board receives periodic cybersecurity awareness training.

Cybersecurity risk is also included in the Company’s Enterprise Risk Management (“ERM”) process that involves senior management and other personnel in the identification, assessment and management of a broad range of risks (including cybersecurity risks) that could affect the Company’s ability to execute on its corporate strategy and fulfill its business objectives. The Company’s Chief Operating Officer and Chief Information Officer provide input and updates to the Enterprise Risk Committee (comprised of members of management) on cybersecurity preparedness and emerging risks. The Enterprise Risk Committee produces the relevant risk management information for executive and senior management and the Board


Ambac Financial Group, Inc.			25			2024 Form 10-K

Table of Contents,

of Directors, which receives ERM updates on a quarterly basis. The Chief Operating Officer and Chief Information Officer are also members of the Company's Disclosure Committee and provide updates on cybersecurity threats and emerging risks to the Disclosure Committee prior to the filing of each quarterly report on Form 10-Q and annual report on Form 10-K.

The Company’s Chief Information Officer and CISO bring over 35 years of combined experience in the technology and cybersecurity space. The Chief Information Officer has served as a chief information officer and chief technology officer of both private and public institutions for the past 10 years and was responsible for the IT operations and cybersecurity practices of those institutions. The CISO is a certified cybersecurity professional and technologist. He holds an active ISO/ANSI-accredited cybersecurity certification and has experience managing security programs across multiple industries, including financial services and insurance. Other credentials among Ambac’s IT staff include a Certified Information Systems Security Professional certification and a Masters Degree in cybersecurity risk and management.

Ambac and its subsidiaries are subject to various U.S. Federal and state laws and regulations with respect to privacy, data protection and cybersecurity that require financial institutions, including insurance companies and agencies, to safeguard personal and other sensitive information, and may provide for notice of their practices relating to the collection, disclosure and processing of personal information, disclosure of cybersecurity risk management practices, reporting of cybersecurity incidents, and implementation of governance practices. For example, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) adopted the NAIC Insurance Data Security Model Law (#668) (“NAIC Model Law”) that creates rules for insurers and other covered entities addressing data security and the investigation and notification of cybersecurity events involving unauthorized access to, or the misuse of, certain nonpublic information. This includes maintaining an information security program based on ongoing risk assessment, overseeing third-party service providers, investigating data breaches and notifying regulators of a cybersecurity event. Legislation based on the NAIC Model Law has been enacted in many states and may be enacted in other states. Certain of our subsidiaries, as insurance companies and agencies licensed in the State of New York, are also required to comply with the New York Department of Financial Services (“NYDFS”) cybersecurity regulation, which establishes requirements for covered financial services institutions to implement a cybersecurity program designed to protect the confidentiality, integrity and availability of information systems of regulated entities, and information stored on those systems. The regulation imposes a governance framework for cybersecurity program, risk based minimum standards for technology systems for data protection, monitoring and testing, third-party service provider reviews, security incident response and reporting to NYDFS of certain security incidents, annual certifications of regulatory compliance to NYDFS, and other requirements. Recent amendments to the NYDFS cybersecurity regulation impose additional security requirements and new governance obligations.

The California Consumer Privacy Act, went into effect in January 2020, and provides additional privacy rights for

California residents, and in November 2020, California further expanded privacy rights for California residents by enacting the California Privacy Rights Act, which became effective January 1, 2023. Several other states have enacted similar comprehensive privacy laws. We anticipate federal and state regulators to continue to enact legislation related to privacy and cybersecurity, which may require additional compliance investments and changes to policies, procedures and operations.

The federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 and its implementing regulations (“HIPAA”) impose minimum standards on covered entities, such as health insurers, for the privacy and security of protected health information (“PHI”). The Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act, enacted in 2009 (“HITECH”) provides for the extension of certain privacy and security provisions of HIPAA to business associates of covered entities that handle electronic PHI. Xchange specializes in accident and health insurance and is a business associate of the health insurers carriers it partners with, making it subject to compliance with the provisions of HITECH and HIPAA applicable to business associates.

In the United Kingdom, data protection is governed by the UK General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679 and the UK Data Protection Act of 2018 (together the “UK GDPR”), which requires companies to manage the access and transfer of personal information of UK residents. The Company’s affiliates licensed and doing business in the UK are subject to compliance with the provisions of the UK GDPR.

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