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AWS Growth Slows, Amazon (AMZN) Shares Tumble on Cloud Woes

Quiver Editor

Amazon's (AMZN) shares slid 2% on Friday after the tech giant reported lackluster cloud revenue growth, intensifying investor concerns that Big Tech's massive artificial intelligence investments are taking longer than expected to yield returns. The slowdown in cloud performance mirrors similar challenges faced by Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL), highlighting a broader trend among U.S. cloud-computing giants grappling with capacity constraints and escalating infrastructure costs.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) posted a 19% rise in revenue to $28.79 billion, narrowly missing analyst expectations of $28.87 billion. This minor shortfall has prompted analysts to question whether the miss is due to capacity limitations or other underlying issues. "We're scratching our heads, wondering if it's a capacity constraint or something else at play," observed a senior portfolio manager, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding these critical infrastructure investments.

Market Overview:
  • Amazon’s cloud revenue growth fell short, contributing to a 2% share decline.
  • The slowdown is echoed at Microsoft and Alphabet amid high AI spending.
  • AWS reported a 19% revenue increase to $28.79 billion, just shy of forecasts.
Key Points:
  • Investor concerns persist over Big Tech’s hefty AI capital expenditures.
  • Analysts debate whether capacity constraints or other issues are driving the miss.
  • Despite the setback, AWS’s growth acceleration suggests potential market share gains.
Looking Ahead:
  • At least 10 brokerages have raised price targets on Amazon shares while others trimmed theirs.
  • The stock is on track to lose approximately $58.88 billion in market value if the trend continues.
  • Amazon’s 12-month forward P/E of 37.3 contrasts with Alphabet’s 22.7 and Microsoft’s 29.3, underscoring cautious investor sentiment.
Bull Case:
  • Despite missing analyst expectations, AWS still posted a strong 19% revenue increase to $28.79 billion, demonstrating continued growth in the cloud computing sector.
  • The acceleration in AWS's growth rate from the previous quarter suggests potential market share gains against competitors like Microsoft and Google.
  • At least 10 brokerages have raised their price targets on Amazon shares, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite short-term challenges.
  • Amazon's robust retail performance, which bolstered overall revenue, showcases the company's ability to maintain strong performance across diverse business segments.
  • The company's significant investments in AI infrastructure position it well for future growth and innovation in cloud services and other AI-driven technologies.
Bear Case:
  • The 2% slide in Amazon's shares following the cloud revenue miss reflects growing investor concerns about the returns on massive AI investments.
  • AWS's revenue shortfall, even if minor, raises questions about potential capacity constraints or other underlying issues affecting cloud growth.
  • The stock is on track to lose approximately $58.88 billion in market value if the current trend continues, signaling significant investor unease.
  • Amazon's higher 12-month forward P/E ratio of 37.3, compared to Alphabet's 22.7 and Microsoft's 29.3, suggests the stock may be overvalued relative to its peers.
  • Ongoing challenges in converting cloud growth into sustained profitability, coupled with high AI-related capital expenditures, could pressure Amazon's financial performance in the coming quarters.

Despite robust retail performance bolstering overall revenue, the cloud unit’s underperformance is a significant concern. The divergence between accelerating cloud growth from the previous quarter and the current quarter's slowdown has left investors divided. While some view AWS's performance as a sign of regaining the lead over rivals, others remain wary of the long-term implications of massive AI investments on Big Tech’s balance sheets.

Looking forward, market watchers will closely monitor AWS’s ability to convert its cloud growth into sustained profitability. The evolving competitive dynamics, fueled by capacity constraints and relentless AI spending, will determine whether Amazon can maintain its dominant market position. With price targets being adjusted and investor sentiment in flux, the coming quarters will be critical in assessing the true impact of these challenges on Amazon's valuation.

About the Author

David Love is an editor at Quiver Quantitative, with a focus on global markets and breaking news. Prior to joining Quiver, David was the CEO of Winter Haven Capital.

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