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Amazon (AMZN) Outperforms in Q4 Despite Cloud Setback

Quiver Editor

Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly revenue estimates in the final quarter of last year, buoyed by a strong holiday retail season that pushed its overall sales to $187.8 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectations. However, the performance was overshadowed by weaknesses in its cloud computing unit, which led to a sharp 3.5% drop in shares in extended trading and wiped out roughly $90 billion in market value.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported a 19% revenue increase to $28.79 billion, narrowly missing consensus estimates of $28.87 billion. This modest growth in AWS reflects broader investor impatience with Big Tech's substantial capital expenditures on AI and cloud infrastructure, a challenge also faced by rivals such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL). The company’s robust retail performance, including a 7% increase in online sales to $75.56 billion and an 18% rise in advertising revenue to $17.3 billion, partially offset the cloud unit's underperformance.

Market Overview:
  • Q4 revenue reached $187.8 billion versus an estimated $187.3 billion.
  • Online sales surged 7% to $75.56 billion amid a strong holiday season.
  • AWS grew 19% to $28.79 billion, slightly missing expectations.
Key Points:
  • Advertising revenue climbed 18% to $17.3 billion and net income nearly doubled to $20 billion.
  • Earnings per share were $1.86, exceeding the expected $1.49.
  • Cloud growth lags contributed to a 3.5% drop in extended trading, erasing about $90 billion in market value.
Looking Ahead:
  • Investors remain cautious as Big Tech faces mounting capital expenditures on AI and cloud infrastructure.
  • Monitoring AWS performance will be crucial to restoring investor confidence.
  • Future strategy may balance retail strength with renewed focus on accelerating cloud growth.
Bull Case:
  • The Stargate initiative’s $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure positions the U.S. as a global leader in advanced technologies, fostering innovation and economic growth.
  • Collaboration between OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle brings together industry leaders with proven expertise, ensuring the project’s success and scalability.
  • The focus on state-of-the-art data centers and supercomputing clusters addresses the growing demand for computational power, supporting AI advancements like ChatGPT.
  • Initial projects in Texas signal job creation and regional economic development, with plans for nationwide expansion further amplifying the initiative’s impact.
  • Corporate investment in Stargate underscores rising confidence in AI technologies, potentially driving further private sector funding and innovation.
Bear Case:
  • The ambitious $500 billion investment may face challenges in securing sustained private sector funding, potentially delaying project timelines or scaling back its scope.
  • Global competition in AI infrastructure remains fierce, with countries like China heavily investing in similar initiatives, potentially eroding U.S. dominance despite Stargate’s efforts.
  • Dependence on key stakeholders like OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle could expose the initiative to risks if partnerships falter or if economic conditions shift.
  • Building state-of-the-art data centers and energy facilities may encounter regulatory hurdles or environmental concerns, complicating implementation plans.
  • The project’s success hinges on delivering tangible results by 2028; failure to meet expectations could undermine investor confidence and future AI-related initiatives.

Despite the robust performance in its retail division, the underwhelming growth in AWS has raised concerns among investors. The slowdown in cloud revenue, a key driver of future earnings, underscores the challenge of sustaining high growth amid massive capital investments in AI and infrastructure.

As Amazon navigates these headwinds, it remains well-positioned with strong retail fundamentals and effective cost management. The company’s future strategy will likely focus on bolstering its cloud segment while leveraging retail momentum, ensuring it retains market leadership in an increasingly competitive landscape.

About the Author

David Love is an editor at Quiver Quantitative, with a focus on global markets and breaking news. Prior to joining Quiver, David was the CEO of Winter Haven Capital.

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