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Can Apple (AAPL) Intelligence Revive iPhone Growth?

Quiver Editor

Apple (AAPL) posted first-quarter revenue of $124.3 billion, a 4% increase from the prior year and slightly ahead of Wall Street estimates. However, iPhone sales underperformed in China, where local smartphone brands have been eating into Apple’s market share. The company’s AI initiative, Apple Intelligence, has yet to drive a material boost in sales, and investors remain skeptical about its impact on the flagship iPhone lineup.

Despite record earnings per share of $2.40, up 10% year over year, Apple’s stock remained little changed in extended trading. The company has struggled to regain momentum after a broader tech sector decline that has seen its shares drop 5.1% in 2025. CEO Tim Cook expressed confidence in Apple’s product ecosystem, highlighting strong customer engagement and the continued expansion of its installed device base.

Market Overview:
  • Apple posts Q1 revenue of $124.3 billion, up 4% year over year
  • iPhone sales weaken in China amid rising competition
  • EPS reaches a record $2.40, growing 10% year over year
Key Points:
  • Apple Intelligence AI platform fails to boost iPhone sales
  • Apple declares a $0.25 per-share dividend, payable Feb. 13
  • New CFO Kevan Parekh oversees first earnings report
Looking Ahead:
  • Will Apple Intelligence drive future iPhone demand?
  • How will Apple combat Chinese smartphone competition?
  • What are the growth prospects under CFO Kevan Parekh?
Bull Case:
  • Apple posted record revenue of $124.3 billion in Q1 2025, a 4% year-over-year increase, and record earnings per share of $2.40, up 10%, showcasing strong financial performance despite macroeconomic challenges.
  • Apple’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high, indicating strong customer loyalty and providing a foundation for recurring revenue through its growing services segment.
  • The Services division continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue with a 12.9% increase year-over-year, driven by platforms like Apple Music, iCloud, and the App Store.
  • CEO Tim Cook expressed optimism about Apple’s AI initiative, Apple Intelligence, which could drive future growth as it integrates into more products and expands to additional languages in April 2025.
  • Apple’s ability to return over $30 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks highlights its robust cash flow and commitment to delivering shareholder value.
Bear Case:
  • iPhone sales in China declined significantly, with market share falling to 15% amid fierce competition from domestic brands like Huawei and Vivo, raising concerns about Apple’s ability to maintain its dominance in this critical market.
  • Apple Intelligence has yet to meaningfully boost iPhone sales or differentiate the flagship product lineup, leaving investors skeptical about the company’s AI strategy.
  • Despite record earnings, Apple’s stock remained flat in extended trading as investors remain cautious about the company’s growth prospects amid slowing global smartphone demand.
  • Weakness in Greater China, where revenue declined by 8% year-over-year, underscores the challenges Apple faces in one of its largest international markets as local competitors gain ground.
  • The transition to new CFO Kevan Parekh introduces uncertainty regarding Apple’s financial strategy and execution during a period of heightened competitive pressures and macroeconomic headwinds.
Bull Case:
  • Apple posted record revenue of $124.3 billion in Q1 2025, a 4% year-over-year increase, and record earnings per share of $2.40, up 10%, showcasing strong financial performance despite macroeconomic challenges.
  • Apple’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high, indicating strong customer loyalty and providing a foundation for recurring revenue through its growing services segment.
  • The Services division continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue with a 12.9% increase year-over-year, driven by platforms like Apple Music, iCloud, and the App Store.
  • CEO Tim Cook expressed optimism about Apple’s AI initiative, Apple Intelligence, which could drive future growth as it integrates into more products and expands to additional languages in April 2025.
  • Apple’s ability to return over $30 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks highlights its robust cash flow and commitment to delivering shareholder value.
Bear Case:
  • iPhone sales in China declined significantly, with market share falling to 15% amid fierce competition from domestic brands like Huawei and Vivo, raising concerns about Apple’s ability to maintain its dominance in this critical market.
  • Apple Intelligence has yet to meaningfully boost iPhone sales or differentiate the flagship product lineup, leaving investors skeptical about the company’s AI strategy.
  • Despite record earnings, Apple’s stock remained flat in extended trading as investors remain cautious about the company’s growth prospects amid slowing global smartphone demand.
  • Weakness in Greater China, where revenue declined by 8% year-over-year, underscores the challenges Apple faces in one of its largest international markets as local competitors gain ground.
  • The transition to new CFO Kevan Parekh introduces uncertainty regarding Apple’s financial strategy and execution during a period of heightened competitive pressures and macroeconomic headwinds.

Apple’s report marks a transition for the company as newly appointed CFO Kevan Parekh takes over financial leadership from Luca Maestri. The tech giant continues to face hurdles in China, where domestic brands are eroding its premium market dominance. Meanwhile, Apple’s efforts to integrate AI across its ecosystem may take longer than anticipated to translate into revenue growth.

With a record-high installed device base and strong operating margins, Apple remains a dominant force in the industry. However, its ability to reignite iPhone sales and differentiate itself in the AI space will be critical factors for investors in the months ahead. The company will host its earnings call at 2:00 p.m. PT on January 30, 2025.

About the Author

David Love is an editor at Quiver Quantitative, with a focus on global markets and breaking news. Prior to joining Quiver, David was the CEO of Winter Haven Capital.

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