Dollar Tree shares rise as investors focus on scheduled Q4 results and outlook

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is up 5.6% today. Here is some analysis on what might have caused this price movement.

Analysis: The most likely driver appears to be event-driven trading tied to Dollar Tree’s fourth-quarter earnings timing and the market’s focus on management’s forward outlook. With results scheduled for release before the open today, traders may be repositioning based on expectations for comps, margins, and any updated full-year commentary. If no new company update was released alongside the move, the catalyst is less clear and could also reflect short covering or broader strength in value retail.

Details:

Dollar Tree scheduled its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results release for Monday, March 16, 2026, before the market opens, followed by an investor conference call.

In its third-quarter fiscal 2025 update, the company introduced a fourth-quarter outlook calling for 4% to 6% comparable-store net sales growth and adjusted EPS from continuing operations of $2.40 to $2.60.

That same third-quarter release raised full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS from continuing operations outlook to $5.60 to $5.80 and net sales outlook to $19.35 billion to $19.45 billion.

Operationally, Dollar Tree highlighted ongoing execution on its multi-price strategy, including store conversions to the Dollar Tree 3.0 format, new store openings, and sizable year-to-date share repurchases.

Sources:

Dollar Tree Investor Relations, Nasdaq, Morningstar

Disclaimer: This price movement analysis was generated with the help of AI. Please double-check the information provided for mistakes.

$DLTR Insider Trading Activity

$DLTR insiders have traded $DLTR stock on the open market 3 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 0 have been purchases and 3 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $DLTR stock by insiders over the last 6 months:

BRENT A. BEEBE (Chief Merchandising Officer) sold 2,200 shares for an estimated $274,230
ROBERT AFLATOONI (Chief Information Officer) has made 0 purchases and 2 sales selling 1,435 shares for an estimated $142,284.

To track insider transactions, check out Quiver Quantitative's insider trading dashboard.

$DLTR Hedge Fund Activity

We have seen 372 institutional investors add shares of $DLTR stock to their portfolio, and 465 decrease their positions in their most recent quarter.

Here are some of the largest recent moves:

T. ROWE PRICE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC. removed 3,578,948 shares (-42.9%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $440,246,393
UBS AM, A DISTINCT BUSINESS UNIT OF UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT AMERICAS LLC removed 3,555,195 shares (-74.7%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $437,324,536
FMR LLC added 3,304,180 shares (+25.7%) to their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $406,447,181
EDGEPOINT INVESTMENT GROUP INC. removed 2,483,305 shares (-22.3%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $305,471,348
PACER ADVISORS, INC. removed 1,346,247 shares (-100.0%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $165,601,843
FIL LTD removed 1,327,526 shares (-22.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $163,298,973
MORGAN STANLEY removed 1,222,164 shares (-25.5%) from their portfolio in Q4 2025, for an estimated $150,338,393

To track hedge funds' stock portfolios, check out Quiver Quantitative's institutional holdings dashboard.

$DLTR Congressional Stock Trading

Members of Congress have traded $DLTR stock 2 times in the past 6 months. Of those trades, 1 have been purchases and 1 have been sales.

Here’s a breakdown of recent trading of $DLTR stock by members of Congress over the last 6 months:

REPRESENTATIVE GILBERT RAY CISNEROS, JR. sold up to $15,000 on 01/28.
REPRESENTATIVE JULIA LETLOW purchased up to $15,000 on 09/17.

To track congressional stock trading, check out Quiver Quantitative's congressional trading dashboard.

$DLTR Analyst Ratings

Wall Street analysts have issued reports on $DLTR in the last several months. We have seen 3 firms issue buy ratings on the stock, and 4 firms issue sell ratings.

Here are some recent analyst ratings:

BMO Capital issued a "Underperform" rating on 02/13/2026
B of A Securities issued a "Underperform" rating on 12/04/2025
Telsey Advisory Group issued a "Outperform" rating on 12/04/2025
Guggenheim issued a "Buy" rating on 12/04/2025
Goldman Sachs issued a "Sell" rating on 11/13/2025
Wells Fargo issued a "Overweight" rating on 10/10/2025
Jefferies issued a "Underperform" rating on 10/07/2025

To track analyst ratings and price targets for $DLTR, check out Quiver Quantitative's $DLTR forecast page.

$DLTR Price Targets

Multiple analysts have issued price targets for $DLTR recently. We have seen 14 analysts offer price targets for $DLTR in the last 6 months, with a median target of $131.0.

Here are some recent targets:

Joseph Feldman from Telsey Advisory Group set a target price of $150.0 on 03/10/2026
Paul Lejuez from Citigroup set a target price of $132.0 on 02/27/2026
Kelly Bania from BMO Capital set a target price of $95.0 on 02/13/2026
Greg Melich from Evercore ISI Group set a target price of $160.0 on 02/03/2026
Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley set a target price of $146.0 on 01/15/2026
Seth Sigman from Barclays set a target price of $149.0 on 01/08/2026
Zhihan Ma from Bernstein set a target price of $123.0 on 01/05/2026

This article is not financial advice. See Quiver Quantitative's disclaimers for more information. Note that there may be inaccuracies due to mistakes in ticker-mapping, and other anomalies.