Weekly jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 222,000 for the week ended April 19, signaling a still-resilient labor market despite mounting uncertainty from President Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff regime. The modest uptick comes as businesses and consumers grapple with the prospect of higher import levies and swirling doubts about future economic momentum.
Continuing claims, a proxy for ongoing unemployment, fell by 37,000 to 1.841 million, suggesting that layoffs have not yet accelerated. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surged 9.2% in March—driven primarily by a 139% leap in commercial aircraft bookings—yet core capital goods orders excluding aircraft barely inched higher, reflecting corporate caution on equipment spending amid trade tensions.
Market Overview:- Initial claims up to 222,000 highlight continued labor market resilience.
- Durable goods orders jump 9.2%, though core orders rise just 0.1%.
- Continuing claims dip, underscoring stable employment for now.
- Tariff uncertainty is prompting firms to delay major capital investments.
- Beige Book reports show companies pausing hiring pending clarity on economic conditions.
- Commercial aircraft orders front-loaded to beat tariffs, distorting underlying demand.
- Economists expect job losses in tariff-exposed sectors later this year.
- Durable goods volatility may reverse once aircraft orders normalize.
- Fed policy will hinge on incoming labor and inflation data amid trade policy shifts.
- Initial jobless claims, while up slightly to 222,000, remain at historically low levels, indicating the labor market is still fundamentally strong despite tariff-related uncertainty.
- Continuing claims fell by 37,000 to 1.841 million, suggesting layoffs have not accelerated and most workers are quickly finding new employment, supporting stable household incomes.
- The 9.2% surge in durable goods orders—driven by a leap in commercial aircraft bookings—shows that some sectors are still willing to invest in big-ticket items, reflecting pockets of business confidence.
- The four-week moving average for jobless claims declined, reinforcing the view that the labor market remains resilient and can absorb short-term fluctuations.
- If tariff uncertainty is resolved or delayed, pent-up business investment and hiring could rebound, supporting continued economic expansion and consumer confidence.
- The uptick in jobless claims and the near-flat 0.1% rise in core capital goods orders point to growing business caution, with many firms pausing hiring and delaying major investments due to ongoing tariff uncertainty.
- Much of the durable goods surge was front-loaded aircraft orders to beat tariffs, distorting the picture of true underlying demand and raising concerns about a potential pullback in future months.
- Beige Book reports and company commentary show that businesses are increasingly wary, with hiring freezes and capital spending delays likely to weigh on future job growth and economic momentum.
- Economists expect job losses to rise in tariff-exposed sectors like manufacturing and retail later this year if trade tensions persist, especially as consumer demand cools and home sales drop.
- With first-quarter GDP growth expected to be tepid or flat, the economy faces a delicate balancing act—pre-tariff front-running may give way to a broader slowdown if uncertainty is not resolved soon.
Analysts warn that while the labor market remains firm, sectors such as retail, manufacturing and transportation could see payroll cuts if tariffs persist, as firms brace for slower growth. Housing market data, showing a 5.9% drop in existing home sales in March, adds to concerns over cooling consumer demand.
Boeing’s (BA) 139% surge in aircraft orders masked a widening freeze in Chinese deliveries, underscoring the trade war’s uneven impact on capital spending. With first-quarter GDP growth expected to be tepid or flat, the economy faces a delicate balancing act between pre-tariff front-running and the risk of a broader slowdown.
