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Robust Orders Propel GE (GE) Aerospace Past Q4 Estimates

Quiver Editor

General Electric’s (GE) aerospace division ended 2024 with a stellar performance, reporting quarterly revenue of $10.81 billion, far exceeding Wall Street’s $9.49 billion forecast. The Cincinnati-based jet-engine maker attributed the growth to robust demand in its commercial engines-and-services segment, which saw a 19% revenue increase to $7.65 billion. The defense-and-propulsion-technologies segment also contributed, rising 4% year-over-year to $2.52 billion. Chief Executive H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. said orders surged 46% in the fourth quarter, highlighting a strong market for GE’s products and services.

GE Aerospace reported net earnings of $1.9 billion, or $1.76 per share, for the fourth quarter, compared with $1.59 billion, or $1.46 per share, a year earlier. Adjusted earnings came in at $1.32 per share, easily beating analysts’ estimates of $1.04. Shares of GE surged 8% to $203.36 in premarket trading on Thursday. Additionally, the company announced a $7 billion stock repurchase program for 2025 and a 30% dividend increase, further boosting investor confidence.

Market Overview:
  • GE Aerospace Q4 revenue reaches $10.81 billion, surpassing $9.49 billion forecast.
  • Commercial engines-and-services revenue rises 19%; defense segment up 4%.
  • Orders surge 46% in the fourth quarter, signaling strong demand.
Key Points:
  • GE announces $7 billion stock repurchase plan for 2025.
  • Dividend to increase by 30%, pending board approval.
  • Shares jump 8% in premarket trading on upbeat results.
Looking Ahead:
  • GE Aerospace forecasts 2025 adjusted EPS of $5.10–$5.45, versus $5.23 expected.
  • Free cash flow projected between $6.3 billion and $6.8 billion for 2025.
  • Continued strong demand for aerospace products and services anticipated.
Bull Case:
  • GE Aerospace’s Q4 revenue of $10.81 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $9.49 billion, highlights the company’s ability to capitalize on strong demand in both commercial and defense segments.
  • The 19% year-over-year growth in the commercial engines-and-services segment demonstrates GE’s leadership in a recovering aviation market fueled by increased air travel and maintenance demand.
  • Orders surged 46% in Q4, signaling robust future demand for GE’s products and services, positioning the company for sustained growth in 2025 and beyond.
  • The announcement of a $7 billion stock repurchase program and a 30% dividend increase underscores GE’s commitment to enhancing shareholder value, boosting investor confidence.
  • GE Aerospace’s projected free cash flow of $6.3 billion to $6.8 billion for 2025 reflects strong financial health and operational efficiency, supporting its strategic initiatives.
  • Shares surged 8% in premarket trading, reflecting market optimism about GE Aerospace’s performance and outlook.
Bear Case:
  • Despite strong Q4 results, GE Aerospace faces ongoing supply chain challenges that could constrain production capacity and delay deliveries, impacting future revenue growth.
  • The aerospace industry remains highly competitive, with rivals like Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce vying for market share, potentially pressuring GE’s margins in key segments.
  • Macroeconomic uncertainties, including rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions, could dampen airline spending on new engines and services, posing risks to GE’s order pipeline.
  • The $7 billion stock repurchase program may divert resources from R&D investments needed to maintain technological leadership in the evolving aerospace sector.
  • Currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures could erode profitability, particularly as GE expands its international footprint to meet growing global demand.
  • While adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 aligns with expectations, any underperformance relative to these targets could weigh on investor sentiment and share price momentum.

Looking ahead to 2025, GE Aerospace forecasts adjusted earnings per share between $5.10 and $5.45, aligning closely with analysts' consensus of $5.23. Free cash flow is projected to range between $6.3 billion and $6.8 billion, signaling continued financial health. GE also highlighted its shareholder-friendly initiatives, returning more than $6 billion to shareholders in 2024 through buybacks and dividends. The $7 billion share-repurchase plan and dividend boost for 2025 underscore its commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

As GE Aerospace capitalizes on strong market demand, its strategic initiatives and operational execution appear poised to sustain its growth trajectory. With significant orders in the pipeline and an optimistic outlook, the division’s performance underscores its central role in GE's ongoing transformation into a focused industrial powerhouse.

About the Author

David Love is an editor at Quiver Quantitative, with a focus on global markets and breaking news. Prior to joining Quiver, David was the CEO of Winter Haven Capital.

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