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Speaker Johnson’s funding bill excludes debt limit amid Trump pressure

Quiver Editor

The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a last-minute funding package to avert a government shutdown just hours before the midnight deadline. The proposal, announced by House Speaker Mike Johnson, seeks to fund the government through March 14 while providing disaster relief and billions in economic aid to farmers. The bill represents the third attempt in two days to reach a bipartisan agreement, following the failure of two prior packages, including one backed by President-elect Donald Trump.

Speaker Johnson emphasized the need for unity among House Republicans but acknowledged that the measure would require significant Democratic support to pass. The proposed bill notably excludes a suspension of the national debt limit, a provision demanded by Trump that derailed earlier negotiations. Trump and his adviser Elon Musk have publicly pressured lawmakers, with Musk advocating for a shutdown if the Republican majority cannot secure favorable terms.

    Market Overview
  • House Republicans propose funding to prevent a government shutdown.
  • Plan includes disaster relief and $ billions in economic aid for farmers.
  • Debt limit suspension, a sticking point, is excluded from the latest proposal.
    Key Points
  • Speaker Mike Johnson seeks bipartisan support to pass the funding bill.
  • Trump and Musk apply public pressure, highlighting GOP divisions.
  • Democrats remain wary of debt limit negotiations without concessions.
    Looking Ahead
  • Potential shutdown could disrupt federal operations starting Saturday.
  • Republican divisions may complicate Trump’s policy agenda in 2025.
  • Bipartisan cooperation will be crucial for future fiscal stability.
Bull Case:
  • The proposed funding package reflects a pragmatic approach to averting a government shutdown, ensuring continuity of federal operations through March 14.
  • Inclusion of disaster relief and billions in economic aid for farmers demonstrates bipartisan priorities, potentially fostering cooperation between parties.
  • Excluding the debt limit suspension from the bill removes a contentious issue, increasing the likelihood of passage and reducing immediate fiscal uncertainty.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership in seeking bipartisan support highlights a willingness to navigate party divisions for legislative success.
  • A successful resolution could stabilize markets and reinforce confidence in Congress’s ability to manage fiscal challenges effectively.
Bear Case:
  • Republican divisions, amplified by Trump and Musk’s public pressure, could derail the funding bill, increasing the risk of a government shutdown.
  • The exclusion of a debt limit suspension leaves unresolved fiscal challenges that may resurface in future negotiations, creating ongoing uncertainty.
  • A potential shutdown would disrupt federal operations, impacting key services and eroding public trust in Congress’s ability to govern effectively.
  • Democratic wariness over concessions may complicate bipartisan cooperation, delaying critical fiscal resolutions beyond the immediate crisis.
  • Prolonged political standoffs could undermine Trump’s policy agenda in 2025, weakening his influence despite Republican control of Congress.

The funding battle underscores deep divisions within the Republican Party, despite its impending control of Congress. Trump’s influence remains significant but not absolute, as evidenced by the failure of his preferred measures. Speaker Johnson’s latest proposal reflects a pragmatic attempt to prevent a shutdown while balancing party dynamics.

As lawmakers scramble to reach a resolution, the broader implications of the political standoff highlight the challenges of governing under a divided Congress. Markets and federal operations hang in the balance as the midnight deadline looms.

About the Author

David Love is an editor at Quiver Quantitative, with a focus on global markets and breaking news. Prior to joining Quiver, David was the CEO of Winter Haven Capital.

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