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A Trader Just Bet $52,778 against Fed Maintaining Rates at October 2025 Meeting
an hour ago | Oct. 1, 2025 5:12 p.m. UTC

A trader just put $52,778 into contracts betting against "Fed maintains rate" in a "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2025 meeting?" market.

This is one of the largest trades we have seen on a prediction market over the last day.

Market Context

This contract comes from Kalshi’s prediction markets, which allow traders to bet on the outcome of specific events. From our prediction market tracking, the trade was made on 10/01 at 08:41 AM EST when the market was giving a 89% chance of their bet paying off.

There have been 489,927 contracts traded in this market in the last day.

Market Rules

Here are some of the rules that were given for the market:

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

You can find up-to-date information on Kalshi.

Why this matters

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are a pivotal force shaping global economic conditions, impacting everything from borrowing costs to investment strategies. The market pricing of these decisions reflects investor expectations and broader economic sentiment, influencing financial markets worldwide.

Prediction markets centered on Fed rate moves serve as vital indicators of consensus views on future monetary policy. They aggregate diverse information and provide real-time insights into potential central bank actions, thereby aiding in risk management and strategic decision-making.

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Ford Reports 8.2% U.S. Sales Growth in Q3, Sets Records in EV and SUV Segments
4 hours ago | Oct. 1, 2025 1:26 p.m. UTC

Ford Motor Company (F) posted an 8.2% rise in third-quarter U.S. sales, marking its seventh straight month of growth. The automaker reported record gains in electrified vehicles, SUVs, and software services, while its F-Series trucks remained America’s best-sellers.

  • Total U.S. sales reached 545,522 in Q3, up 8.2% year-over-year.
  • F-Series sales topped 620,000 year-to-date, maintaining leadership as the nation’s best-selling truck for 49 years.
  • Electrified vehicle sales hit a record 85,789 in Q3, up 19.8%, led by Mustang Mach-E (+50.7%) and F-150 Lightning (+39.7%).
  • Expedition sales rose 47.4%, the best Q3 in two decades; Bronco also set a quarterly record with 37,858 units (+41.3%).
  • Ford Pro software subscriptions grew 30% to about 815,000; BlueCruise hands-free driving surpassed 7 million hours.
  • Ford’s commercial vehicle share rose to 43%, with Transit and Super Duty leading growth.

Relevant Companies

  • F — Primary automaker benefiting from sales growth and expanded EV adoption.

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story. This article may be updated as more details become available.

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U.S. Private Payrolls Fall 32,000 in September, ADP Reports
5 hours ago | Oct. 1, 2025 12:56 p.m. UTC

U.S. private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, according to ADP Research, as data recalibration linked to federal benchmarks reduced reported job gains and highlighted ongoing weakness in hiring across several sectors.

  • ADP reported a 32,000 decline in private payrolls in September, following a revised 3,000 drop in August.
  • Adjustments tied to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages cut September payrolls by 43,000 compared to pre-benchmark data.
  • Industries with job losses included leisure and hospitality, business services, financial activities, construction, and manufacturing.
  • Education and health services was one of the few areas to record job growth.
  • The Midwest was the only major region to lose jobs, with declines concentrated in firms under 500 employees.
  • The QCEW-based recalibration has also led to preliminary government estimates showing payrolls could be marked down by 911,000 for the year through March.
  • The ADP release comes ahead of the delayed official September jobs report due to the government shutdown.

Relevant Companies

  • None found

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story. This article may be updated as more details become available.

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Markets bet on whether Mikie Sherrill will finish within 100 to -0.01 percentage points in New Jersey
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 12,529 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Mikie Sherrill finish within 100 to -0.01 percentage points in New Jersey?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 24% chance for "Loses", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 24% probability.

If the margin of victory for Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey Gubernatorial Election in New Jersey falls within -100 to -0.01 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 22,717 transactions since it was first opened on September 06, 2025. There are 20,681 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 1,217,000 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether real GDP will increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2025
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 14,872 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will **real GDP** increase by more than 3.0% in Q3 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 65% chance for "Above 3.0%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 65% probability.

If real GDP (as measured by the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate) increases by more than 3.0, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 196,994 transactions since it was first opened on July 10, 2025. There are 77,976 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 9,960,900 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether CPI inflation will be above 3.1% for the year ending in September 2025
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 23,165 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in September 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 19% chance for "Above 3.1%", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 19% probability.

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.1% in the twelve months ending September 2025 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 156,861 transactions since it was first opened on August 13, 2025. There are 85,826 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 17,255,005 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the federal government will shut down for more than 3 days
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 26,737 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the federal government shut down for more than 3 days?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 74% chance for "More than 3 days", which is up from yesterday, when the market implied a 72% probability.

If the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down for above 3 days between Sep 5, 2025 and Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 37,275 transactions since it was first opened on September 05, 2025. There are 25,722 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,550,730 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether average gas prices will be above $3.135
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 17,074 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will average **gas prices** be above $3.135?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 75% chance for "Above 3.135", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 76% probability.

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.135 on Oct 6, 2025 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 17,436 transactions since it was first opened on September 29, 2025. There are 16,825 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,755,236 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Lisa Murkowski will vote for the next omnibus spending bill
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 23,815 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR)?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 9% chance for "Lisa Murkowski", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 10% probability.

If Lisa Murkowski votes for the next omnibus spending bill, minibus, or government-wide continuing resolution (CR) in the Senate before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 25,850 transactions since it was first opened on September 22, 2025. There are 22,727 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 408,560 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Republicans will win the House
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 9,297 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Republicans win the House?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 37% chance for "Republican Party", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 37% probability.

If the Republican has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 423,494 transactions since it was first opened on November 06, 2024. There are 258,804 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 533,828,932 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the Fed will cut rates 1 time
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 30,603 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 10% chance for "Exactly 1 cut", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 10% probability.

If the Fed cuts 1 times before 2026, the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 2,008,748 transactions since it was first opened on December 20, 2024. There are 696,746 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 40,809,260 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether NIKE, Inc. will mention "Consumer Demand" during their next earnings call
18 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 26,885 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “What will NIKE, Inc. say during their next earnings call?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 1% chance for "Consumer Demand", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 1% probability.

If Consumer Demand is said by any NIKE, Inc. representative (including the operator of the call) during the next NIKE, Inc. earnings call (including the Q+A), then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 30,402 transactions since it was first opened on September 17, 2025. There are 21,156 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,539,543 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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U.S. Government to Take 5% Stake in Lithium Americas and GM Thacker Pass Joint Venture
20 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 9:52 p.m. UTC

The U.S. Department of Energy will acquire a 5% equity stake in Lithium Americas ($LAC) and a separate 5% stake in its Thacker Pass joint venture with General Motors ($GM), as part of ongoing negotiations tied to a $2.26 billion federal loan for the Nevada mine project.

Key facts:

  • The deal involves dual 5% ownership stakes—one in Lithium Americas and one in the Thacker Pass joint venture with GM.
  • The Thacker Pass project is expected to be the largest lithium source in the Western Hemisphere.
  • Talks follow earlier discussions between the Trump administration and Lithium Americas on revised loan terms.
  • The U.S. is aiming to secure domestic lithium supply to support electric vehicle and battery production.

Relevant Companies

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story. This article may be updated as more details become available.

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Nike (NKE) Surprises With Q1 Revenue Gain as Turnaround Gains Traction
20 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 9:49 p.m. UTC

Nike (NKE) delivered a surprise revenue increase in its fiscal first quarter, signaling that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround strategy is beginning to take hold. The sportswear giant reported revenue of $11.72 billion, a 1% rise from a year earlier, beating analysts’ expectations of a 5.1% drop. Earnings per share came in at 49 cents, nearly double the 27-cent consensus estimate. Shares rose 1.5% in early trading as investors welcomed signs of stabilization, even as management struck a cautious tone about the recovery’s trajectory. The results showed progress in Nike’s wholesale strategy, where the company is rebuilding ties with retail partners after years of prioritizing direct-to-consumer channels. However, challenges persist. Margins contracted by 320 basis points to 42.2%, hurt by tariffs, currency headwinds, and higher input costs. Analysts flagged continued weakness in China and competitive pressure from younger rivals such as On and Deckers’ Hoka, which are capturing market share in performance and lifestyle categories once dominated by Nike. Market Overview:

  • Nike reported Q1 revenue of $11.72 billion, up 1% year-over-year.
  • EPS of 49 cents beat estimates of 27 cents, boosting investor sentiment.
  • Shares rose 1.5% on cautious optimism about turnaround progress.
Key Points:
  • Margins fell 320 basis points to 42.2% amid tariffs and cost pressures.
  • Wholesale business showed early signs of recovery, but DTC softness persists.
  • Inventories fell 2% year-over-year, suggesting progress on stock management.
Looking Ahead:
  • CEO Elliott Hill is refocusing the brand on core sports and innovation.
  • Nike launched a women’s line, NikeSkims, to compete with Lululemon.
  • China remains a key risk, while U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on costs.
Bull Case:
  • Nike’s fiscal Q1 beat expectations, with revenue rising 1% and EPS nearly doubling consensus, providing early evidence that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround and renewed wholesale strategy are gaining traction.
  • The company’s efforts to rebuild relationships with retail partners and right-size inventory—shown by a 2% year-over-year decline in stock—signal improving operational discipline and foundation for more efficient channel management ahead of key seasons.
  • New product innovation—including a renewed focus on core sports and the launch of the NikeSkims women’s line—positions Nike to recapture market share in growing categories and better compete with athleisure leaders like Lululemon.
  • Despite continuing cost headwinds, Nike’s surprise performance and candid management tone boost investor confidence, reflected by the early share price gain on results day.
  • For sales and product teams: Expedite wholesale activations and accelerate women’s product launches to capitalize on favorable sentiment and strengthen retailer partnerships through tailored, in-demand assortments.
Bear Case:
  • Gross margins tumbled 320 basis points due to persistent tariff, currency, and input cost pressures, underscoring that profit recovery may lag revenue—and casting doubt on near-term earnings power if cost inflation continues or U.S. tariffs linger.
  • China remains a weak spot, and competition from brands like On and Hoka is intensifying, with rivals gaining ground in both performance and lifestyle categories where Nike had previously held dominance.
  • Softer direct-to-consumer (DTC) results highlight ongoing execution risk in key digital and owned channels, raising questions about whether Nike can fully regain its previous momentum in a fast-shifting retail environment.
  • With management cautious on the outlook and recovery expected to be uneven, investors face uncertainty about the sustainability of these “green shoots”—especially if macro pressures worsen or new product launches fail to gain broad traction.
  • Action item for finance and supply chain: Closely monitor cost trends, inventory flows, and region-specific demand signals; maintain flexibility in marketing and distribution as geopolitical, channel, or brand risks present through the balance of the fiscal year.
Nike’s leadership highlighted that recovery will be uneven across geographies and channels. CEO Hill stressed a renewed focus on innovation in core sports like running, while CFO Matthew Friend noted that progress would not be linear given external headwinds. Meanwhile, the launch of NikeSkims in partnership with Kim Kardashian’s brand underscores Nike’s push into women’s athleisure, a fast-growing category dominated by competitors such as Lululemon. The path ahead remains challenging as the company balances inventory discipline, margin pressures, and trade costs, projected at $1 billion annually due to tariffs. Yet Nike’s ability to surprise on revenue and earnings offers hope that its brand refocus and new product launches can regain momentum. For investors, the question remains whether this quarter marks the beginning of a durable turnaround or merely a temporary reprieve in a still-turbulent market environment.

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Meta (META) Expands AI Chip Ambitions With $2 Billion Rivos Acquisition
20 hours ago | Sept. 30, 2025 9:39 p.m. UTC

The announcement that Meta (META) plans to acquire chip startup Rivos underscores the company’s push to develop its own semiconductor capabilities as it competes in the intensifying race to control the hardware powering artificial intelligence. Rivos specializes in chips built on the open-source RISC-V architecture, offering an alternative to designs dominated by Arm (ARM), Intel (INTC), and AMD (AMD). For Meta, the deal signals a deeper commitment to reducing reliance on outside suppliers, particularly amid growing competition for advanced processors from Nvidia (NVDA). Santa Clara-based Rivos brings expertise in full-stack AI systems, which Meta aims to integrate into its Meta Training and Inference Accelerator (MTIA) lineup of custom-built silicon. The company has been one of Rivos’ largest customers and was already exploring closer ties, according to people familiar with the matter. Meta Vice President of Engineering Yee Jiun Song said the acquisition will accelerate progress in Meta’s AI chip initiatives, which are critical to scaling infrastructure and cutting costs from heavy dependence on Nvidia GPUs. Market Overview:

  • Meta will acquire chip startup Rivos to expand its in-house semiconductor program.
  • Rivos focuses on RISC-V architecture, an open-source alternative to Arm and Intel designs.
  • Deal highlights Meta’s strategy to reduce reliance on Nvidia and diversify chip supply.
Key Points:
  • Rivos had been valued near $2 billion and counted Meta among its largest customers.
  • Meta’s custom silicon work focuses on MTIA chips for AI training and inference.
  • Meta’s rising chip efforts come as demand for AI infrastructure accelerates globally.
Looking Ahead:
  • Acquisition may intensify competition with Nvidia, Intel, and AMD in AI processors.
  • Meta’s success in chipmaking could help ease AI infrastructure bottlenecks.
  • Deal highlights trend of Big Tech seeking control over critical hardware supply chains.
Bull Case:
  • Meta’s acquisition of Rivos accelerates its shift toward proprietary AI chips, reducing dependency on outside suppliers like Nvidia and positioning Meta to achieve better control over performance, cost, and scalability of its hardware stack as global AI demand surges.
  • Rivos’ expertise in RISC-V architecture gives Meta a competitive edge: open-source flexibility enables rapid innovation and may lower total development costs versus legacy chip models from Arm and Intel, allowing Meta to tailor solutions for its own AI workloads and use cases.
  • The deal aligns Meta with other Big Tech players (Google, Amazon, Microsoft) pursuing vertical integration in AI infrastructure, helping to secure supply chains in a constrained chip market and enhancing resilience amid ongoing processor shortages and supply volatility.
  • Meta’s custom silicon efforts—focused on MTIA chips—could ease bottlenecks in AI training and inference, unlock new capabilities for its platforms, and support large-scale AI deployment with greater operational efficiency.
  • Actionable for engineering and procurement teams: Early partnership or piloting with Meta’s new chip architecture could offer preferred access to next-generation infrastructure; investors should monitor Meta’s roadmap for milestones in in-house chip production and deployment.
Bear Case:
  • In-house chip development is risky and resource-intensive—Meta’s integration of Rivos may face technology, execution, or scale challenges, delaying the timeline for competitive products and exposing the company to unexpected costs versus proven platforms from Nvidia, Intel, and AMD.
  • RISC-V architecture, while flexible and open source, is less mature and may struggle to match the performance of established chip designs in demanding AI applications, potentially limiting Meta’s ability to keep pace with the fastest industry innovation cycles.
  • Meta’s focus on proprietary hardware may complicate its relationships with existing suppliers and partners—potentially fragmenting its supply base, straining procurement, or causing friction over access to critical next-gen technologies.
  • The new acquisition intensifies competition with top chipmakers at a time of heightened geopolitical scrutiny and supply chain risk, raising the likelihood of regulatory hurdles or challenges finding adequate manufacturing partners for specialized AI chips.
  • Action item for finance and ops leaders: Closely monitor execution risks, supplier rationalization, and engineering talent retention; stress-test cost and deployment models for Meta’s custom chips relative to scaling proven off-the-shelf solutions as AI workloads expand.
Meta has been investing heavily in Nvidia hardware while simultaneously developing its own chips to balance performance with cost control. Reuters reported earlier this year that the company began testing in-house AI chips, with Rivos expected to add both engineering talent and architectural expertise. The move aligns Meta with peers like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, all of which are expanding proprietary silicon to meet exploding AI workloads. The acquisition also reflects broader shifts in the semiconductor landscape. RISC-V, unlike proprietary instruction sets from Intel and Arm, is open-source, giving developers flexibility in design and potentially lowering barriers for innovation. By integrating Rivos’ technology, Meta aims to strengthen its vertical integration in AI infrastructure at a time when securing supply and optimizing efficiency have become strategic imperatives for major tech companies.

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Markets bet on whether Gavin Newsom will be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 39,920 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Gavin Newsom be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 33% chance for "Gavin Newsom", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 33% probability.

If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,457,442 transactions since it was first opened on November 06, 2024. There are 879,890 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 390,812,588 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Donald Trump will leave office this year
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 11,667 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Donald Trump out this year?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 5% chance for "Donald Trump", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 5% probability.

If Donald Trump leaves office before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,453,814 transactions since it was first opened on August 30, 2025. There are 788,384 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 83,309,331 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Trump will mention "Palestine" during Press Conference with Netanyahu
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 42,015 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “What will Trump say during Press Conference meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu on September 29th?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 1% chance for "Palestine", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 1% probability.

If Trump says Palestine as part of Press Conference meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu on September 29th, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 42,015 transactions since it was first opened on September 29, 2025. There are 34,610 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 727,294 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether average gas prices will be above $3.15
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 158,598 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will average **gas prices** be above $3.15?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 12% chance for "Above 3.15", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 15% probability.

If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.15 on Sep 30, 2025 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,004,215 transactions since it was first opened on August 31, 2025. There are 189,400 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 5,100,508 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the S&P 500 will be between 7000 and 7199.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2025
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 10,431 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the S&P 500 be between 7000 and 7199.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 19% chance for "7,000 to 7,199.99", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 19% probability.

If the end-of-day S&P 500 index value for December 31, 2025 is between 7000-7199.99, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 216,108 transactions since it was first opened on November 05, 2024. There are 161,571 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 105,184,689 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Trump will release any documents about Epstein's associates before Oct 1, 2026
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 27,823 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Trump release any documents about Epstein's associates before Oct 1, 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 43% chance for "Before Oct 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 43% probability.

If the Trump Administration releases any previously unreleased documents from prior to the Administration discussing Jeffrey Epstein's associates/connections before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 66,460 transactions since it was first opened on July 28, 2025. There are 18,280 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 4,216,506 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Trump will create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2026
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 10,357 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 23% chance for "Before Jan 1, 2026", which is up from yesterday, when the market implied a 20% probability.

If the White House creates a National Bitcoin Reserve (a la the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) before January 1, 2026, either through direct executive action or by signing a bill into law, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,532,567 transactions since it was first opened on November 09, 2024. There are 319,175 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 62,812,157 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Yann LeCun will leave Meta in 2025
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 8,805 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Yann LeCun leave Meta in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 21% chance for "Yann LeCun", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 21% probability.

If Yann LeCun announces they are leaving Meta before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 11,516 transactions since it was first opened on July 08, 2025. There are 3,747 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 237,632 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Joe Buck and/or Troy Aikman will say 'Mahomes' during Cincinnati at Denver Pro football game commentary
1 day, 18 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 10,426 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “What will Joe Buck and/or Troy Aikman say during Cincinnati at Denver Pro football game commentary?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 53% chance for "Mahomes", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 56% probability.

If Joe Buck and/or Troy Aikman says Mahomes as part of Cincinnati at Denver Pro football game commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 10,429 transactions since it was first opened on September 29, 2025. There are 8,149 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 651,500 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Trump Pledges Tariffs on Imported Furniture to Boost U.S. Manufacturing
2 days, 4 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 1:16 p.m. UTC

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday on Truth Social that he plans to impose new tariffs on furniture imports in an effort to revive U.S. manufacturing, particularly in North Carolina, which he said has "completely lost its furniture business to China and other countries." Trump said details of the tariffs will be released soon.

  • Trump posted the tariff plan Tuesday morning on Truth Social.
  • The move targets countries that export furniture to the U.S. without domestic production.
  • Trump emphasized North Carolina, historically a hub of U.S. furniture manufacturing, as a key beneficiary.
  • Details on the scale and timeline of tariffs are expected to follow.

Relevant Companies

  • Ethan Allen ($ETD) – U.S. furniture retailer and manufacturer could see stronger demand if tariffs raise prices on imports.
  • La-Z-Boy ($LZB) – Domestic manufacturer may benefit from reduced foreign competition.
  • Wayfair ($W) – Online furniture seller relies heavily on imports and could face higher costs from tariffs.

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story. This article may be updated as more details become available.

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U.S. Gold Reserves Top $1 Trillion as Prices Hit Record Highs
2 days, 5 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 1:09 p.m. UTC

The U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves have surpassed $1 trillion in market value after gold prices reached new record highs, though official government accounts continue to value the holdings at just over $11 billion under a decades-old standard.

  • Gold prices rose above $3,824.50 an ounce on Monday, a 45% increase this year.
  • The Treasury holds about 261.5 million ounces of gold, officially valued at $42.22 per ounce since 1973.
  • At current prices, the stash is worth more than 90 times its stated balance sheet value.
  • Speculation earlier this year suggested the U.S. might mark reserves to market, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the idea.
  • About half the reserves are stored at Fort Knox, with the rest split between West Point, Denver, and a vault beneath the New York Fed.
  • Investors have fueled the rally through ETF inflows and expectations of looser Fed policy amid trade and geopolitical tensions.
  • The reserves’ updated value would cover roughly half of the U.S.’s $1.97 trillion budget deficit through August.

Relevant Companies

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story. This article may be updated as more details become available.

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Trump Warns NYC May Lose Federal Funds if Mamdani Wins
2 days, 5 hours ago | Sept. 29, 2025 1:02 p.m. UTC

President Donald Trump warned on Truth Social that he would withhold federal funding from New York City if State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, were elected mayor. Trump called Mamdani a "self-proclaimed Communist" and argued that his policies would fail without federal money.

  • Trump said Mamdani "needs the money from me, as President, in order to fulfill all of his FAKE Communist promises."
  • The former president claimed Mamdani would face unprecedented challenges with Washington if elected mayor.
  • Trump characterized Mamdani’s ideology as one that has “failed for thousands of years.”
  • Mamdani, currently representing Queens in the New York State Assembly, announced his mayoral candidacy earlier this year.
  • The post underscores Trump’s willingness to use federal funding as leverage against political opponents at the local level.

Relevant Companies

  • None found

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story. This article may be updated as more details become available.

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Markets bet on whether the Republican Party will win Arizona's 7th Congressional District special election
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 24,960 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Which party will win Arizona's 7th Congressional District special election?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 1% chance for "Republican Party", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 1% probability.

If the Republican Party wins Arizona's 7th Congressional District special election in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 137,746 transactions since it was first opened on June 19, 2025. There are 59,646 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 24,475,914 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the Fed will cut rates more than 25 bps in 2025
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 17,566 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 11% chance for "In 2025", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 11% probability.

If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points before Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 427,255 transactions since it was first opened on January 04, 2025. There are 123,985 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 14,684,404 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Zohran Mamdani will receive 50% or more of the vote in the NYC Mayoral Election
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 11,558 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “What percent of the vote will Zohran Mamdani get in NYC Mayoral Election?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 70% chance for "50% or more", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 70% probability.

If Zohran Mamdani has 50% share of the vote in the NYC Mayoral Election in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 128,513 transactions since it was first opened on July 16, 2025. There are 58,176 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 3,280,748 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 58,388 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2025 meeting?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 4% chance for "Cut >25bps", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 4% probability.

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of >25bps on October 29, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,006,905 transactions since it was first opened on August 05, 2025. There are 800,268 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 588,208,875 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Eric Adams will endorse Andrew Cuomo in the 2025 NYC Mayoral Race
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 17,562 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Eric Adams endorse Andrew Cuomo in 2025 NYC Mayoral Race?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 54% chance for "Eric Adams", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 56% probability.

If Eric Adams endorses Andrew Cuomo in the 2025 NYC Mayoral Race before election day, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 143,387 transactions since it was first opened on August 07, 2025. There are 66,113 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 3,682,950 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether a representative of the Andrew Cuomo party will win the NYC Mayor race in 2025
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 399,355 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will a representative of the Andrew Cuomo party win the NYC Mayor race in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 17% chance for "Andrew Cuomo", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 18% probability.

If Andrew Cuomo (as an independent only) wins the NYC Mayoral election on Nov 4, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 6,977,299 transactions since it was first opened on June 25, 2025. There are 2,790,447 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 107,055,795 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 12,168 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 45% chance for "Before 2028", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 45% probability.

If the Supreme Court, in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, rules that Trump's tariffs are legal, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 172,205 transactions since it was first opened on September 02, 2025. There are 105,897 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 3,298,977 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Chuck Schumer will say "Deal" during Meet the Press on September 28th
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 11,726 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “What will Chuck Schumer say during Meet the Press on September 28th?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 1% chance for "Deal", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 1% probability.

If Chuck Schumer says Deal as part of Meet the Press on September 28th, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 11,984 transactions since it was first opened on September 27, 2025. There are 11,800 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 267,075 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the government will shut down in 2025
2 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 28, 2025 11:19 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 73,155 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Government shutdown in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 65% chance for "Before 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 65% probability.

If the government is shutdown at any 10:00 AM ET before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,462,328 transactions since it was first opened on November 05, 2024. There are 404,096 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 24,696,768 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the United States will sanction Russia before October 2025
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 4,238 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the United States sanction Russia, Russian government officials, state-owned enterprises, or financial institutions before Oct 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 4% chance for "Before Oct 2025", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 4% probability.

If the U.S. sanctions Russia, Russian government officials, state-owned enterprises, or financial institutions before Oct 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 155,024 transactions since it was first opened on August 15, 2025. There are 59,650 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,652,580 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Elon Musk will create a new political party this year
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 25,178 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Elon Musk create a new political party this year?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 6% chance for "In 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 6% probability.

If Elon Musk creates a new political party before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,420,630 transactions since it was first opened on June 06, 2025. There are 334,015 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 23,396,538 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether MrBeast will say "Survive" during his next YouTube video
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 48,607 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “What will MrBeast say during Next MrBeast Youtube Video?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 2% chance for "Survive", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 2% probability.

If MrBeast says Survive during his Next MrBeast Youtube Video, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 52,005 transactions since it was first opened on September 16, 2025. There are 35,913 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 345,118 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether above 0 jobs will be added in September 2025
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 21,619 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will above 0 jobs be added in September 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 87% chance for "Above 0", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 87% probability.

If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 0 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 205,592 transactions since it was first opened on August 22, 2025. There are 139,666 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 4,817,123 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Conor McGregor will be elected President of Ireland in 2025
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 2,957 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Who will be elected President of Ireland in 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 2% chance for "Conor McGregor", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 2% probability.

If Conor McGregor is elected President of Ireland in 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 57,266 transactions since it was first opened on April 01, 2025. There are 35,230 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 2,520,688 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether the Department of Education will be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 3,960 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will the Department of Education be eliminated before Jan 1, 2026?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 5% chance for "Before Jan 1, 2026", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 5% probability.

If the Department of Education is sunsetted or eliminated before January 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,258,419 transactions since it was first opened on November 21, 2024. There are 266,897 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 20,850,327 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Trump will try and impose export tariffs
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 3,394 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Trump try and impose export tariffs?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 12% chance for "Before 2025", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 12% probability.

If the President tries to impose any export tariffs before Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 22,302 transactions since it was first opened on March 19, 2025. There are 8,743 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 1,914,947 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether President Trump will resign before his term is up
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 2,861 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will President Trump resign before his term is up?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 21% chance for "Before his term ends", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 21% probability.

If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 80,113 transactions since it was first opened on November 09, 2024. There are 36,870 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 3,938,961 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether SpaceX will launch another Starship by Sep 30, 2025
3 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 27, 2025 11:17 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 7,815 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 30, 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 1% chance for "Before October 01", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 1% probability.

If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 11 before October 01, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 34,265 transactions since it was first opened on August 27, 2025. There are 23,330 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 299,563 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Thomas Massie will be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party
4 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 26, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 31,667 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 3% chance for "Thomas Massie", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 3% probability.

If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 283,436 transactions since it was first opened on July 22, 2025. There are 272,882 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 11,885,555 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Donald J. Trump will win the next presidential election
4 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 26, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 9,222 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Who will win the next presidential election?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 5% chance for "Donald J. Trump", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 5% probability.

If Donald J. Trump is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 233,653 transactions since it was first opened on May 10, 2025. There are 221,182 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 834,871,010 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether tariffs on any sector will come into effect before Oct 2025
4 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 26, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 21,681 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will tariffs on any sector come into effect before Oct 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 12% chance for "Before Oct 2025", which is down from yesterday, when the market implied a 13% probability.

If the President imposes any new (or raised) tariffs before Oct 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 45,804 transactions since it was first opened on September 07, 2025. There are 24,023 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 4,276,492 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether Eric Adams will drop out of the NYC Mayoral race
4 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 26, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 9,000 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will Eric Adams drop out of the NYC Mayoral race?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 63% chance for "Eric Adams", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 63% probability.

If Eric Adams drops out of NYC Mayoral race before Nov 4, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 1,081,314 transactions since it was first opened on July 14, 2025. There are 314,015 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 16,114,617 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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Markets bet on whether federal takeover of D.C. police legislation becomes law before Oct 1, 2025
4 days, 18 hours ago | Sept. 26, 2025 11:18 p.m. UTC

Kalshi has reported 9,586 in volume over the last 24 hours on their market for “Will becomes law before Oct 1, 2025?”, making it one of the hottest markets on the platform today.

The market currently is implying a 1% chance for "Before October", which is neutral from yesterday, when the market implied a 1% probability.

If legislation that extends federal takeover of D.C. police beyond 30-day limit becomes law before Oct 1, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.

In total, this market has seen a volume of 157,464 transactions since it was first opened on August 14, 2025. There are 95,278 positions of open interest in this market, and the overall liquidity is sitting at 15,726,166 contracts.

Based on Quiver’s tracking, here are 10 of the finance and politics markets that have had the most volume on Kalshi over the last 24 hours:

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